Research Database
Displaying 61 - 80 of 94
U.S. strategy for forest management adaptation to climate change: building a framework for decision making
Year: 2014
This paper describes methods developed to (1) assess current risks, vulnerabilities, and gaps in knowledge; (2) engage internal agency resources and external partners in the development of options and solutions; and (3) manage forest resources for resilience, not just in terms of natural ecosystems but in affected human communities as well. We describe an approach designed to characterize certain climate change effects on forests, and estimate the effectiveness of response options ranging from resistance to a realignment of management objectives. Field testing on a 6,300 km2 area of conifer…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Trust: A planning guide for wildfire agencies & practitioners
Year: 2014
This planning guide is the outcome of an international collaboration of researchers and practitioners/field managers working in communities at risk of wildfire in three countries. Initially, the team of social scientists from Australia, Canada, and the United States utilized the collective research literature to examine factors that influence stakeholder trust. A working draft of this document was shared with experienced agency personnel and community leaders previous to interactive workshops and field visits in each country. This allowed for deliberations of the essential features of…
Publication Type: Report
Climate change tipping points: A point of no return?
Year: 2013
Summer 2012 saw records fall for intensity of drought and number, size, and cost of wildfires in the Central and Western United States, and the climate forecast calls for more of the same in the near and distant future. When wildfire breaks out, emergency responders decide their immediate strategy based on past experience and quick judgment calls. But in the long term, land managers need to plan for a warmer climate on a time scale of decades, or even a century or more, to better reflect the life span of trees and forests. Studies supported by the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) are…
Publication Type: Report
Capturing Fire: RxCadre Takes Fire Measurements to a Whole New Level
Year: 2013
Models of fire behavior and effects do not always make accurate predictions, and there is not enough systematically gathered data to validate them. To help advance fire behavior and fire effects model development, the Joint Fire Science Program is helping fund the RxCADRE, which is made up of scientists from the U.S. Forest Service and several universities who orchestrate and collect data on prescribed burns in the southeastern United States. The RxCADRE-prescribed burns are yielding a comprehensive dataset of fire behavior, fire effects, and smoke chemistry and dynamics, with measurements…
Publication Type: Report
Making monitoring count: project design for active adaptive management
Year: 2013
Ongoing environmental change requires that managers develop strategies capable of achieving multiple objectives in an uncertain future. Active adaptive management (AAM) offers a robust approach to reducing uncertainty while also considering diverse stakeholder perspectives. Important features of AAM include recognition of learning as a management objective, integration of monitoring throughout all aspects of project design and implementation, and use of experimental design in project planning. These features facilitate collaborator engagement and adaptive management based on credible…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions
Year: 2012
Conservation science strives to inform management decisions. Applying niche models in concert with future climate projections to project species vulnerability to extinction, range size loss, or distribution shifts has emerged as a potentially useful tool for informing resource management decisions. Making climate change niche modeling useful to conservation decisions requires centering studies on the types of decisions that are made regarding the focal taxa of a niche model study. Recent recommendations for climate adaptation strategies suggest four types of decision makers: policy, habitat…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Ecosystem Greenspots: Identifying Potential Drought, Fire, and Climate-Change Micro-Refuges
Year: 2012
In response to climate change and other threatening processes there is renewed interest in the role of refugia and refuges. In bioregions that experience drought and fire, micro-refuges can play a vital role in ensuring the persistence of species. We develop and apply an approach to identifying potential micro-refuges based on a time series of remotely sensed vegetation greenness (fraction of photosynthetically active radiation intercepted by the sunlit canopy; fPAR). The primary data for this analysis were NASA MODIS 16-day L3 Global 250 m (MOD13Q1) satellite imagery. This method draws upon…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Living with Wildfire: The State of Practice in Western Communities
Year: 2012
On the order of Congress, the federal land and fire management agencies are collaboratively developing a “National Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy” (Cohesive Strategy). In order to integrate the experience and insights of community stakeholders working on fire management issues in the west, leaders responsible for the Western Region Cohesive Strategy needed a strong understanding of current trends, needs and opportunities. This assessment was designed to provide that information and is intended to inform strategies, policies and programs emerging through the Cohesive Strategy and in…
Publication Type: Report
Bark Beetles and Fire: Two forces of nature transforming western forests
Year: 2012
Bark beetles are chewing a wide swath through forests across North America. Over the past few years, infestations have become epidemic in lodgepole and spruce-fir forests of the Intermountain West. The resulting extensive acreages of dead trees are alarming the public and raising concern about risk of severe fire. Researchers supported by the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) are examining the complicated relationship between bark beetles and wildfire, the two most influential natural disturbance agents in these forests. Are the beetles setting the stage for larger, more severe wildfires? And…
Publication Type: Report
Climate Change in Grasslands, Shrublands, and Deserts of the Interior American West: A Review and Needs Assessment
Year: 2012
Recent research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the western interior of the United States in response to climate change. This volume reviews existing climate models that predict species and vegetation changes in the western United States, and it synthesizes knowledge about climate change impacts on the native fauna and flora of grasslands, shrublands and deserts of the interior American West. Species' responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment…
Publication Type: Report
Cheating Cheatgrass: New research to combat a wily invasive weed
Year: 2012
Cheatgrass and its cousin, red brome, are exotic annual grasses that have invaded and altered ecosystem dynamics in more than 41 million acres of desert shrublands between the Rockies and the Cascade-Sierra chain. A fungus naturally associated with these Bromus species has been found lethal to the plants’ soil-banked dormant seeds. Supported by the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP), researchers Susan Meyer, Phil Allen, and Julie Beckstead cultured this fungus, Pyrenophora semeniperda, in the laboratory and developed an experimental field application that, in some trials, killed all the…
Publication Type: Report
Development of Risk Matrices for Evaluating Climatic Change Responses of Forested Habitats
Year: 2012
We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate change. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or impact of that event. In the context of species habitats, the likelihood component is related to the potential changes in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Smoke Science Plan: The Path Forward
Year: 2012
Wildland fire managers face increasingly steep challenges to meet air quality standards while planning prescribed fire and its inevitable smoke emissions. The goals of sound fire management practices, including fuel load reduction through prescribed burning, are often challenged by the need to minimize smoke impacts on communities. Wildfires, of course, also produce smoke, so managers must constantly weigh the benefits and risks of controlled burns and their generated emissions against potential wildfires and their generated emissions and must communicate those benefits and risks to the…
Publication Type: Report
Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications
Year: 2012
Projecting future distributions of ecosystems or species climate niches has widely been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change. However, variability in such projections for the future periods, particularly the variability arising from uncertain future climates, remains a critical challenge for incorporating these projections into climate change adaptation strategies. We combined the use of a robust statistical modeling technique with a simple consensus approach consolidating projected outcomes for multiple climate change scenarios, and exemplify how the results could guide…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Predicting Dry Lightning Risk Nationwide
Year: 2012
Meteorologists developed two formulas to predict the probability of dry lightning throughout the continental United States and Alaska and parts of Canada. Predictions are made daily and are accessible through the web at http://www.airfire.org/tools/daily-fi re-weather/dry-lightning-probability. The emphasis is on the western United States, where dry lightning is a more common occurrence. Predictions are based on identifying days on which lightning is expected and separately determining whether there is likely to be at least 1/10th inch of accompanying rain. The formulas are run with the…
Publication Type: Report
Placing Forestry in the Assisted Migration Debate
Year: 2012
Assisted migration (AM) is often presented as a strategy to save species that are imminently threatened by rapid climate change. This conception of AM, which has generated considerable controversy, typically proposes the movement of narrowly distributed, threatened species to suitable sites beyond their current range limits. However, existing North American forestry operations present an opportunity to practice AM on a larger scale, across millions of hectares, with a focus on moving populations of widely distributed, nonthreatened tree species within their current range limits. Despite these…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Is Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change Necessary in Grazed Rangelands?
Year: 2012
In this article we test the notion that adaptation to climate change in grazed rangelands requires little more effort than current approaches to risk management because the inherent climate variability that characterizes rangelands provides a management environment that is preadapted to climate change. We also examine the alternative hypothesis that rangeland ecosystems and the people they support are highly vulnerable to climate change. Past climate is likely to become an increasingly poor predictor of the future, so there is a risk in relying on adaptation approaches developed solely in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
After the Fire is Out
Year: 2011
Even before firefighters have left a burn site, a second wave of specialists is deployed. Their task: to assess the burn site; determine the level of risk to life, property, and ecological resources; and determine quickly the most effective postfire treatments for emergency stabilization and initial rehabilitation of the site. For the past 13 years, the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) has funded research on this critical phase of work, which often goes unnoticed after the fire is out. With support from the JFSP, scientists have made great strides in improving the tools available to assess…
Publication Type: Report
Ponderosa Pine Biomass Relationships Vary with Site Treatment and Site Productivity
Year: 2011
Allometric equations, which express biomass as a function of tree size, are often used to estimate the amount of fuel in a site’s canopy. Most managers assume that one allometric equation per species is sufficient, or that any error introduced by extrapolation is irrelevant. This work showed, however, that the allometric biomass relationship for ponderosa pine likely changes over space and time. The researchers concluded that for maximum accuracy, allometric equations for ponderosa pine should account for stand management history and site productivity. Thinned trees replaced their foliage…
Publication Type: Report