Research Database
Displaying 1 - 15 of 15
A Review of Recent Advances in Risk Analysis for Wildfire Management
Year: 2012
Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyse the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels management planning scales from individual incidents to national, strategic interagency programs. After a brief review of the three components of fire risk – likelihood, intensity and effects – this paper reviews recent advances…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Atmospheric Interactions with Wildland Fire Behaviour I. Basic Surface Interactions, Vertical Profiles and Synoptic Structures
Year: 2012
This paper is the first of two reviewing scientific literature from 100 years of research addressing interactions between the atmosphere and fire behaviour. These papers consider research on the interactions between the fuels burning at any instant and the atmosphere, and the interactions between the atmosphere and those fuels that will eventually burn in a given fire. This first paper reviews the progression from the surface atmospheric properties of temperature, humidity and wind to horizontal and vertical synoptic structures and ends with vertical atmospheric profiles. (The companion paper…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Atmospheric Interactions with Wildland Fire Behaviour II. Plume and Vortex Dynamics
Year: 2012
This paper is the second of two reviewing scientific literature from 100 years of research addressing interactions between the atmosphere and fire behaviour. These papers consider research on the interactions between the fuels burning at any instant and the atmosphere, and the interactions between the atmosphere and those fuels that will eventually burn in a given fire. The first paper reviews the progression from the surface atmospheric properties of temperature, humidity and wind to horizontal and vertical synoptic structures and ends with vertical atmospheric profiles. This second paper…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Meta-analysis of avian and small-mammal response to fire severity and fire surrogate treatments in US fire-prone forests
Year: 2012
Management in fire-prone ecosystems relies widely upon application of prescribed fire and/or fire surrogate (e.g., forest thinning) treatments to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function. Recently, published literature examining wildlife response to fire and fire management has increased rapidly. However, none of this literature has been synthesized quantitatively, precluding assessment of consistent patterns of wildlife response among treatment types. Using meta-analysis, we examined the scientific literature on vertebrate demographic responses to burn severity (low/moderate, high), fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A Comprehensive Guide to Fuel Management practices for Dry Mixed Conifer Forests in the Northwestern United States
Year: 2012
This guide describes the benefits, opportunities, and trade-offs concerning fuel treatments in the dry mixed conifer forests of northern California and the Klamath Mountains, Pacific Northwest Interior, northern and central Rocky Mountains, and Utah. Multiple interacting disturbances and diverse physical settings have created a forest mosaic with historically low- to mixed-severity fire regimes. Analysis of forest inventory data found nearly 80 percent of these forests rate hazardous by at least one measure and 20 to 30 percent rate hazardous by multiple measures. Modeled mechanical…
Publication Type: Report
Climate Change, Forests, Fire, Water, and Fish: Building Resilient Landscapes, Streams, and Managers
Year: 2012
Fire will play an important role in shaping forest and stream ecosystems as the climate changes. Historic observations show increased dryness accompanying more widespread fire and forest die-off. These events punctuate gradual changes to ecosystems and sometimes generate stepwise changes in ecosystems. Climate vulnerability assessments need to account for fire in their calculus. The biophysical template of forest and stream ecosystems determines much of their response to fire. This report describes the framework of how fire and climate change work together to affect forest and fish…
Publication Type: Report
Research Perspectives on the Public and Fire Management: A Synthesis of Current Social Science on Eight Essential Questions
Year: 2012
As part of a Joint Fire Science Program project, a team of social scientists reviewed existing fire social science literature to develop a targeted synthesis of scientific knowledge on the following questions: 1. What is the public’s understanding of fire’s role in the ecosystem? 2. Who are trusted sources of information about fire? 3. What are the public’s views of fuels reduction methods, and how do those views vary depending on citizens’ location in the wildland-urban interface or elsewhere? 4. What is the public’s understanding of smoke effects on human health, and what shapes the public’…
Publication Type: Report
Delayed Phenology and Reduced Fitness Associated with Climate Change in a Wild Hibernator
Year: 2012
The most commonly reported ecological effects of climate change are shifts in phenologies, in particular of warmer spring temperatures leading to earlier timing of key events. Among animals, however, these reports have been heavily biased towards avian phenologies, whereas we still know comparatively little about other seasonal adaptations, such as mammalian hibernation. Here we show a significant delay (0.47 days per year, over a 20-year period) in the hibernation emergence date of adult females in a wild population of Columbian ground squirrels in Alberta, Canada. This finding was related…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Eco-Evolutionary Responses of Biodiversity to Climate Change
Year: 2012
Climate change is predicted to alter global species diversity, the distribution of human pathogens and ecosystem services. Forecasting these changes and designing adequate management of future ecosystem services will require predictive models encompassing the most fundamental biotic responses. However, most present models omit important processes such as evolution and competition. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges
Year: 2012
Projected effects of climate change on animal distributions primarily focus on consequences of temperature and largely ignore impacts of altered precipitation. While much evidence supports temperature-driven range shifts, there is substantial heterogeneity in species' responses that remains poorly understood. We resampled breeding ranges of birds across three elevational transects in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA, that were extensively surveyed in the early 20th century. Presence absence comparisons were made at 77 sites and occupancy models were used to separate significant range shifts…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications
Year: 2012
Projecting future distributions of ecosystems or species climate niches has widely been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change. However, variability in such projections for the future periods, particularly the variability arising from uncertain future climates, remains a critical challenge for incorporating these projections into climate change adaptation strategies. We combined the use of a robust statistical modeling technique with a simple consensus approach consolidating projected outcomes for multiple climate change scenarios, and exemplify how the results could guide…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Temporal variability in California grasslands: Soil type and species functional traits mediate response to precipitation
Year: 2012
Plant communities on infertile soils may be relatively resistant to climatic variation if species in these communities have "stress-tolerant" functional traits that limit their ability to respond to climate. Alternatively, such communities may be more sensitive to climatic variation if their relatively sparse vegetative cover exposes species to more extreme changes in factors such as temperature or wind. We compared temporal variability in species richness and composition over 10 years between grasslands on infertile serpentine and "normal" sedimentary soils. Variability in species richness…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A physiological trait-based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climate warming
Year: 2012
Physiological tolerance of environmental conditions can influence species-level responses to climate change. Here, we used species-specific thermal tolerances to predict the community responses of ant species to experimental forest-floor warming at the northern and southern boundaries of temperate hardwood forests in eastern North America. We then compared the predictive ability of thermal tolerance vs. correlative species distribution models (SDMs) which are popular forecasting tools for modeling the effects of climate change. Thermal tolerances predicted the responses of 19 ant species to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projected range shifting by montane mammals under climate change: implications for Cascadia's National Parks
Year: 2012
We examined potential impacts of climate change over the next century on eight mammal species of conservation concern in western Washington State, under four warming scenarios. Using two species distribution models, including a logistic regression-based model and the "maximum entropy" (MaxEnt) model, we predicted the location and extent of the potential current and future range of each species based on a suite of environmental and geographical variables. Both models projected significant losses in range size within the focal area over the next century across all warming scenarios. Projections…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Decline of an Endangered Amphibian During an Extreme Climatic Event
Year: 2012
Climate change is a poorly understood, emerging threat to many amphibian species. One of the ways climate change is likely to affect amphibians is through increased recruitment failure associated with more frequent climatic extremes. To understand the risk posed by this threat, we combined 13 years of annual monitoring and multi-scaled habitat modelling at the site (n = 60), pool (n = 105) and nest (n = 170) levels to investigate the decline of the endangered northern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne pengilleyi), during the most severe drought on record in southern Australia. We documented the…
Publication Type: Journal Article