Research Database
Displaying 1 - 20 of 72
Fire Intensity and spRead forecAst (FIRA): A Machine Learning Based Fire Spread Prediction Model for Air Quality Forecasting Application
Year: 2025
Fire activities introduce hazardous impacts on the environment and public health by emitting various chemical species into the atmosphere. Most operational air quality forecast (AQF) models estimate smoke emissions based on the latest available satellite fire products, which may not represent real-time fire behaviors without considering fire spread. Hence, a novel machine learning (ML) based fire spread forecast model, the Fire Intensity and spRead forecAst (FIRA), is developed for AQF model applications. FIRA aims to improve the performance of AQF models by providing realistic, dynamic fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Temporal and spatial pattern analysis of escaped prescribed fires in California from 1991 to 2020
Year: 2025
Background: Prescribed fires play a critical role in reducing the intensity and severity of future wildfires by systematically and widely consuming accumulated vegetation fuel. While the current probability of prescribed fire escape in the United States stands very low, their consequential impact, particularly the large wildfires they cause, raises substantial concerns. The most direct way of understanding this trade-off between wildfire risk reduction and prescribed fire escapes is to explore patterns in the historical prescribed fire records. This study investigates the spatiotemporal…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Influence of Time‐Averaging of Climate Data on Estimates of Atmospheric Vapor Pressure Deficit and Inferred Relationships With Wildfire Area in the Western United States
Year: 2025
Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a driver of evaporative demand and correlates strongly with wildfire extent in the western United States (WUS). Vapor pressure deficit is the difference between saturation vapor pressure (es) and actual vapor pressure (ea). Because es increases nonlinearly with temperature, calculations of time‐averaged VPD vary depending on the frequency of temperature measurements and how ea is calculated, potentially limiting our understanding of fire‐climate relationships. We calculate eight versions of monthly VPD across the WUS and assess their differences. Monthly VPDs…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Methods to assess fire-induced tree mortality: review of fire behaviour proxy and real fire experiments
Year: 2025
Background: The increased interest in why and how trees die from fire has led to several syntheses of the potential mechanisms of fire-induced tree mortality. However, these generally neglect to consider experimental methods used to simulate fire behaviour conditions.Aims: To describe, evaluate the appropriateness of and provide a historical timeline of the different approaches that have been used to simulate fire behaviour in fire-induced tree mortality studies.Methods: We conducted a historical review of the different actual and fire proxy methods that have been used to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildland fire entrainment: The missing link between wildland fire and its environment
Year: 2025
Wildfires are growing in destructive power, and accurately predicting the spread and intensity of wildland fire is essential for managing ecological and societal impacts. No current operational models used for fire behavior prediction resolve critical fire-atmospheric coupling or nonlocal influences of the fire environment, rendering them inadequate in accounting for the range of wildland fire behavior scenarios under increasingly novel fuel and climate conditions. Here, we present a new perspective on a dominant fire-atmospheric feedback mechanism, which we term wildland fire entrainment (…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Global Synthesis of Quantification of Fire Behaviour Characteristics in Forests and Shrublands: Recent Progress
Year: 2025
Purpose of ReviewThe behaviour of wildland fires, namely their free spreading nature, destructive energy fluxes and hazardous environment, make it a phenomenon difficult to study. Field experimental studies and occasional wildfire observations underpin our understanding of fire behaviour. We aim to present a global synthesis of field-based studies in forest and shrublands fuel types published since 2003 with a focus on the most commonly measured fire behaviour attributes, namely rate of fire spread, ignition and spread sustainability, flame characteristics, fuel consumption…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Short-term impacts of operational fuel treatments on modelled fire behaviour and effects in seasonally dry forests of British Columbia, Canada
Year: 2025
Background: In response to increasing risk of extreme wildfire across western North America, forest managers are proactively implementing fuel treatments.Aims: We assessed the efficacy of alternative combinations of thinning, pruning and residue fuel management to mitigate potential fire behaviour and effects in seasonally dry forests of interior British Columbia, Canada.Methods: Across five community forests, we measured stand attributes before and after fuel treatments in 2021 and 2022, then modelled fire behaviour and effects using the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Pixels to pyrometrics: UAS-derived infrared imagery to evaluate and monitor prescribed fire behaviour and effects
Year: 2024
Background: Prescribed fire is vital for fuel reduction and ecological restoration, but the effectiveness and fine-scale interactions are poorly understood. Aims: We developed methods for processing uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) imagery into spatially explicit pyrometrics, including measurements of fuel consumption, rate of spread, and residence time to quantitatively measure three prescribed fires. Methods: We collected infrared (IR) imagery continuously (0.2 Hz) over prescribed burns and one experimental calibration burn, capturing…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires
Year: 2024
The 2023 Canadian forest fires have been extreme in scale and intensity with more than seven times the average annual area burned compared to the previous four decades. Here, we quantify the carbon emissions from these fires from May to September 2023 on the basis of inverse modelling of satellite carbon monoxide observations. We find that the magnitude of the carbon emissions is 647 TgC (570–727 TgC), comparable to the annual fossil fuel emissions of large nations, with only India, China and the USA releasing more carbon per year. We find that widespread hot–dry weather was a principal…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Variability in weather and site properties affect fuel and fire behavior following fuel treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe
Year: 2024
Fuel-treatments targeting shrubs and fire-prone exotic annual grasses (EAGs) are increasingly used to mitigate increased wildfire risks in arid and semiarid environments, and understanding their response to natural factors is needed for effective landscape management. Using field-data collected over four years from fuel-break treatments in semiarid sagebrush-steppe, we asked 1) how the outcomes of EAG and sagebrush fuel treatments varied with site biophysical properties, climate, and weather, and 2) how predictions of fire behavior using the Fuel Characteristic Classification System fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Long-term sensitivity of ponderosa pine axial resin ducts to harvesting and prescribed burning
Year: 2024
Forest restoration treatments primarily aimed at reducing fuel load and preventing high-severity wildfires can also influence resilience to other disturbances. Many pine forests in temperate regions are subject to tree-killing bark beetle outbreaks (e.g., Dendroctonus, Ips), whose frequency and intensity are expected to increase with future climatic changes. Restoration treatments have the potential to increase resistance to bark beetle attacks, yet the underlying mechanisms of this response are still unclear. While the effect of forest restoration treatments on tree growth…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fire intensity effects on serotinous seed survival
Year: 2024
BackgroundIn fire-prone environments, some species store their seeds in canopy cones (serotiny), which provides seeds protection from the passage of fire before stimulating seed release. However, the capacity of serotinous cones to protect seeds under high intensity fire is uncertain. Beyond simply “high” versus “low” fire intensity or severity, we must understand the influence of the specific characteristics of fire intensity—heat flux, exposure duration, and their dynamics—on serotinous seed survival. In this study, we tested serotinous seed survival under transient levels of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Leveraging the next generation of spaceborne Earth observations for fuel monitoring and wildland fire management
Year: 2024
Managing fuels is a key strategy for mitigating the negative impacts of wildfires on people and the environment. The use of satellite-based Earth observation data has become an important tool for managers to optimize fuel treatment planning at regional scales. Fortunately, several new sensors have been launched in the last few years, providing novel opportunities to enhance fuel characterization. Herein, we summarize the potential improvements in fuel characterization at large scale (i.e., hundreds to thousands of km2) with high spatial and spectral resolution arising from the use of new…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Bacterial Emission Factors: A Foundation for the Terrestrial-Atmospheric Modeling of Bacteria Aerosolized by Wildland Fires
Year: 2024
Wildland fire is a major global driver in the exchange of aerosols between terrestrial environments and the atmosphere. This exchange is commonly quantified using emission factors or the mass of a pollutant emitted per mass of fuel burned. However, emission factors for microbes aerosolized by fire have yet to be determined. Using bacterial cell concentrations collected on unmanned aircraft systems over forest fires in Utah, USA, we determine bacterial emission factors (BEFs) for the first time. We estimate that 1.39 × 1010 and 7.68 × 1011 microbes are emitted for each Mg of biomass consumed…
Publication Type: Journal Article
How are long-term stand structure, fuel profiles, and potential fire behavior affected by fuel treatment type and intensity in Interior Pacific Northwest forests?
Year: 2024
Fuel treatments are commonly applied to increase resilience to wildfire in dry and historically frequent-fire forests of western North America. The long-term effects of fuel treatments on forest structure, fuel profiles (amount and configuration of fuels), and potential wildfire behavior are not well known relative to short-term effects. Additionally, long-term treatment effects on the development of stand structure and fuel profiles have rarely been compared to the long-term effects of pre-treatment conditions, treatment intensity, and site productivity. In this study, we addressed these…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season in Canada
Year: 2024
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented in its scale and intensity, spanning from mid-April to late October and across much of the forested regions of Canada. Here, we summarize the main causes and impacts of this exceptional season. The record-breaking total area burned (~15 Mha)can be attributed to several environmental factors that converged early in the season: early snowmelt, multi annual drought conditions in western Canada, and the rapid transition to drought in eastern Canada. Anthropogenic climate change enabled sustained extreme fire weather conditions, as the meanMay–…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada
Year: 2024
In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Review of fuel treatment effects on fuels, fire behavior and ecological resilience in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Western U.S.
Year: 2024
BackgroundSagebrush ecosystems are experiencing increases in wildfire extent and severity. Most research on vegetation treatments that reduce fuels and fire risk has been short term (2–3 years) and focused on ecological responses. We review causes of altered fire regimes and summarize literature on the longer-term effects of treatments that modify (1) shrub fuels, (2) pinyon and juniper canopy fuels, and (3) fine herbaceous fuels. We describe treatment effects on fuels, fire behavior, ecological resilience, and resistance to invasive annual grasses.ResultsOur review revealed tradeoffs in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Hydrometeorology-wildfire relationship analysis based on a wildfire bivariate probabilistic framework in different ecoregions of the continental United States
Year: 2024
Wildfires are a natural part of the ecosystem in the U.S.. It is vital to classify wildfires using a comprehensive approach that simultaneously considers wildfire activity (the number of wildfires) and burned area. On this basis, the influence of hydrometeorological variables on wildfires can be further analyzed. Therefore, this study first classified wildfire types using a wildfire bivariate probability framework. Then, by considering six hydrometeorological variables, the dominant hydrometeorological variables for different wildfire types in 17 ecoregions of the United States were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Estimating masticated and cone fuel loads using the Photoload method
Year: 2024
BackgroundRecognizing the complexity and varied nature of forest fuelbeds is crucial in understanding fire behavior and effects on the landscape. While current modeling efforts often consider fine and coarse woody debris surface fuel loads, those options do not always provide the most complete description of the fuelbeds. Both masticated fuels and cones can be a significant part of the fuelbed, with the potential to influence fire behavior and effects, but they are not currently captured in planar intersect methods or Photoload fuel sampling methodology. Cones are prevalent in most forested…
Publication Type: Journal Article