Research Database
Displaying 1 - 20 of 51
Fire Intensity and spRead forecAst (FIRA): A Machine Learning Based Fire Spread Prediction Model for Air Quality Forecasting Application
Year: 2025
Fire activities introduce hazardous impacts on the environment and public health by emitting various chemical species into the atmosphere. Most operational air quality forecast (AQF) models estimate smoke emissions based on the latest available satellite fire products, which may not represent real-time fire behaviors without considering fire spread. Hence, a novel machine learning (ML) based fire spread forecast model, the Fire Intensity and spRead forecAst (FIRA), is developed for AQF model applications. FIRA aims to improve the performance of AQF models by providing realistic, dynamic fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires
Year: 2024
The 2023 Canadian forest fires have been extreme in scale and intensity with more than seven times the average annual area burned compared to the previous four decades. Here, we quantify the carbon emissions from these fires from May to September 2023 on the basis of inverse modelling of satellite carbon monoxide observations. We find that the magnitude of the carbon emissions is 647 TgC (570–727 TgC), comparable to the annual fossil fuel emissions of large nations, with only India, China and the USA releasing more carbon per year. We find that widespread hot–dry weather was a principal…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada
Year: 2024
In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Bacterial Emission Factors: A Foundation for the Terrestrial-Atmospheric Modeling of Bacteria Aerosolized by Wildland Fires
Year: 2024
Wildland fire is a major global driver in the exchange of aerosols between terrestrial environments and the atmosphere. This exchange is commonly quantified using emission factors or the mass of a pollutant emitted per mass of fuel burned. However, emission factors for microbes aerosolized by fire have yet to be determined. Using bacterial cell concentrations collected on unmanned aircraft systems over forest fires in Utah, USA, we determine bacterial emission factors (BEFs) for the first time. We estimate that 1.39 × 1010 and 7.68 × 1011 microbes are emitted for each Mg of biomass consumed…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
Year: 2024
Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that are difficult to untangle. We use machine learning to systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global forest pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities to climatic, human, and vegetation controls. This delineation revealed that rapidly increasing forest fire emissions in extratropical pyromes, linked to climate change, offset declining emissions in tropical pyromes during 2001 to 2023. Annual emissions tripled in one extratropical pyrome due to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Application of the wildland fire emissions inventory system to estimate fire emissions on forest lands of the United States
Year: 2024
BackgroundForests are significant terrestrial biomes for carbon storage, and annual carbon accumulation of forest biomass contributes offsets affecting net greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The immediate loss of stored carbon through fire on forest lands reduces the annual offsets provided by forests. As such, the United States reporting includes annual estimates of direct fire emissions in conjunction with the overall forest stock and change estimates as a part of national greenhouse gas inventories within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Forest fire emissions…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Generating fuel consumption maps on prescribed fire experiments from airborne laser scanning
Year: 2024
Background. Characterisation of fuel consumption provides critical insights into fire behaviour, effects, and emissions. Stand-replacing prescribed fire experiments in central Utah offered an opportunity to generate consumption estimates in coordination with other research efforts. Aims. We sought to generate fuel consumption maps using pre- and post-fire airborne laser scanning (ALS) and ground measurements and to test the spatial transferability of the ALSderived fuel models. Methods. Using random forest (RF), we empirically modelled fuel load and estimated consumption from pre-…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Increasing co-occurrence of fine particulate matter and ground-level ozone extremes in the western United States
Year: 2022
Wildfires and meteorological conditions influence the co-occurrence of multiple harmful air pollutants including fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ground-level ozone. We examine the spatiotemporal characteristics of PM2.5/ ozone co-occurrences and associated population exposure in the western United States (US). The frequency, spatial extent, and temporal persistence of extreme PM2.5/ozone co-occurrences have increased significantly between 2001 and 2020, increasing annual population exposure to multiple harmful air pollutants by ~25 million person-days/year. Using a clustering methodology…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Tamm review: The effects of prescribed fire on wildfire regimes and impacts: A framework for comparison
Year: 2020
Prescribed fire can result in significant benefits to ecosystems and society. Examples include improved wildlifehabitat, enhanced biodiversity, reduced threat of destructive wildfire, and enhanced ecosystem resilience.Prescribed fire can also come with costs, such as reduced air quality and impacts to fire sensitive species. To planfor appropriate use of prescribed fire, managers need information on the tradeoffs between prescribed fire andwildfire regimes. In this study, we argue that information on tradeoffs should be presented at spatial andtemporal scales commensurate with the scales at…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Reburn in the Rain Shadow
Year: 2018
Wildfires consume existing forest fuels but also leave behind dead shrubs and trees that become fuel to future wildfires. Harvesting firekilled trees is sometimes proposed as an economical approach for reducing future fuels and wildfire severity. Postfire logging, however, is controversial. Some question its fuel reduction benefits and its ecological impacts. David W. Peterson, a research forester with the USDA Forest Service, and his colleagues investigated the long-term effects of postfire logging on woody fuels in 255 coniferous forest stands that burned with high fire severity in 68…
Publication Type: Report
Telling Fire’s Story through Narrative and Art
Year: 2017
Modern works by highly skilled narrative authors and artists have become increasingly useful for telling the story of wildland fire in the United States. Using unconventional means—and with partial funding by the Joint Fire Science Program—creative individuals have spawned some colorful and heartfelt messages that convey insightful information about wildland fire, climate, and other elements of nature to an increasingly receptive public. Recent narrative works by well-known authors, such as Stephen J. Pyne, and creative art pieces by well-established and emerging artists have helped depict…
Publication Type: Report
Relational risk assessment and management: investigating capacity in wildfire response networks
Year: 2017
Failures in effective communication and coordination within the network of responding organizations and agencies during a wildfire can lead to problematic or dangerous outcomes. Although risk assessment and management concepts are usually understood with regards to biophysical attributes in the wildfire context, these concepts can be extended to understanding risk for problematic communication and coordination embedded within social and organizational relationships. In this research, we propose leveraging existing network and social coordination theory to investigate how pre-fire…
Publication Type: Report
The Science of Fuel Treatments
Year: 2017
High fuel loads can significantly contribute to the intensity and severity of fires. Fuels include plant material, such as leaves, bark, needles, branches, and vegetation. Land managers use various methods to reduce fuel levels. The two most common fuel treatment methods include forest thinning and prescribed fire. The pace of implementing such fuel treatments has increased over the last several decades. Scientific studies of fuel treatments supported by the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) highlight significant findings on the effectiveness of these treatments in various fuel types.
Publication Type: Report
Policy Scenarios for fire-adapted communities: Understanding stakeholder risk-perceptions, using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps
Year: 2017
Collaborative groups are most effective when the varied stakeholder groups within them understand the risks of wildfire and take proactive steps to manage these risks. Implementing policies for fire risk mitigation and adaptation, however, remains difficult because risks and policy alternatives are not understood or supported uniformly across diverse stakeholders. To facilitate greater understanding and collaboration across diverse groups, we developed a novel approach, based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), in which we systematically collected mental model representations from a range of…
Publication Type: Report
Fire Science Exchange Network
Year: 2017
The Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) Fire Science Exchange Network is a national collaboration of 15 regional fire science exchanges that provides the most relevant, current wildland fire science information to federal, state, local, tribal, and private stakeholders within ecologically similar regions. The network brings fire managers, practitioners, and scientists together to address regional fire management needs and challenges.
Publication Type: Report
Joint Fire Science Program Smoke Science Plan Conclusion: Smoke Science Accomplishments Under the Plan
Year: 2017
The Smoke Science Plan (SSP) was the guidance and organizational tool of the Joint Fire Science Program for smoke research from 2011 until 2016. It helped to guide the funding and management of 41 research and development projects under four thematic areas. Since its inception in 2011, 29 smoke science projects have been funded. An additional 12 legacy projects, addressing research needs identified in the SSP, were added to the portfolio for a total of 41 projects considered as part of the SSP.
Publication Type: Report
Bridging the gap: Joint Fire Science Program Outcomes
Year: 2017
The Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) has funded an impressive number of research projects over the years. However, the number of projects does not necessarily provide an accurate picture of the program’s effectiveness. Over the last decade, researchers have collected data and conducted several studies to determine whether the results of JFSP-funded projects are reaching potential users and informing management decisions and actions. Those studies have helped identify issues and influence changes within the program. Early studies pointed out the need for a boundary-spanning organization to…
Publication Type: Report
Scanning the Future of Wildfire: Resilience Ahead...Whether We Like It or Not?
Year: 2016
The field of so-called “futures research” provides researchers and stakeholders in a given subject area or system a way to map out and plan for alternate possible scenarios of the future. A recent research project supported by the Joint Fire Science Program brought together futures researchers and wildfire specialists to envision what the future holds for wildfire impacts and how the wildfire community may respond to the complex suite of emerging challenges. The consensus of the project’s foresight panel suggests that an era of resilience is ahead: but that this resilience may come either…
Publication Type: Report
Drivers of Wildfire Suppression Costs: A Review
Year: 2016
As federal spending on wildland fire suppression has increased dramatically in recent decades, significant policymaking has been designed, at least in part, to address and temper rising costs. Effective strategies for controlling public spending and leveraging limited wildfire management resources depend on a comprehensive understanding of the drivers of suppression costs. Problematically, frequently noted drivers often do not explain variability between similar wildfires or comparable wildfire seasons. As speculation and scrutiny around rising costs have increased, so too have scholarly…
Publication Type: Report
Secretarial Order 3336 Science Priorities: The Role of Science Past, Present, and Future
Year: 2016
Within sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems, which are home to more than 350 species of plants and animals, potentially more frequent and severe fires are causing an increased threat to human safety, property, rural economies, and wildlife habitat. In particular, the habitat of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), an iconic sagebrush-dependent species, is at risk. In response to this reality, on January 15, 2015, Secretary Sally Jewell signed Secretarial Order 3336 (S.O. 3336), titled “Rangeland Fire Prevention, Management, and Restoration.” The main purpose of the order is…
Publication Type: Report