Research Database
Displaying 41 - 60 of 60
Compounding effects of climate change and WUI expansion quadruple the likelihood of extreme-impact wildfires in California
Year: 2025
Previous research has examined individual factors contributing to wildfire risk, but the compounding effects of these factors remain underexplored. Here, we introduce the “Integrated Human-centric Wildfire Risk Index (IHWRI)” to quantify the compounding effects of fire-weather intensification and anthropogenic factors—including ignitions and human settlement into wildland—on wildfire risk. While climatic trends increased the frequency of high-risk fire-weather by 2.5-fold, the combination of this trend with wildland-urban interface expansion led to a 4.1-fold increase in the frequency of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
High fire hazard Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) residences in California lack voluntary and mandated wildfire risk mitigation compliance in Home Ignition Zones
Year: 2025
Wildfire structure losses are increasing globally and particularly in California, USA. Losses can be mitigated in part by changes to the Home Ignition Zone (HIZ), including both home hardening and defensible space. In the United States, there are local, nation-wide, and industry-based home mitigation standards that are enforced or recommended. We explore the standards implementation (California code and two voluntary standards) at 176 participating residences in three Santa Cruz Mountains and two Sierra Nevada Mountains sites. Overall most residences had little compulsory or recommended…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Future enhanced threshold effects of wildfire drivers could increase burned areas in northern mid- and high latitudes
Year: 2025
Wildfires exhibit extensive nonlinear characteristics and threshold effects in response to environmental changes. However, how threshold effects affect wildfire responses and their future changes remains unclear. Here we identified thresholds where wildfire-driver relationships shift and estimated the impact of threshold effects on wildfire dynamics in the 21st century in northern mid- and high latitudes (>30°N). Wildfire-driver thresholds, coregulated by gradient differences in heat and moisture conditions, vegetation productivity, and human activities, effectively explain the spatial…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Farming and ranching through wildfire: Producers’ critical role in fire risk management and emergency response
Year: 2025
Wildfires increasingly threaten California’s agricultural sector, posing serious risks to farming, ranching, and food systems. We conducted a survey of 505 California farmers and ranchers affected by wildfires between 2017 and 2023. Main findings show that wildfires’ impacts on producers are extensive and range from mild to catastrophic, with both short and long-term repercussions, regardless of their exposure level. Producers play a central role in community emergency wildfire risk response and management by reducing fuel loads, creating defensible space, and leveraging their fire management…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Effects of long-term ecological research and cognitive biases on the evaluation of scientific information by public land managers in Oregon and Washington, USA
Year: 2025
Natural resource managers (managers) value and use scientific information to inform their decision-making process in a variety of ways. The scientific information managers use depends on a variety of factors, including the source of the information and ease of access. Barriers, such as paywalls, insufficient capacity, and information overload play an important role in determining what scientific information managers have access and attend to. Additionally, characteristics of managers themselves also influence what scientific information they prioritize and implement. Specific factors likely…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fire Intensity and spRead forecAst (FIRA): A Machine Learning Based Fire Spread Prediction Model for Air Quality Forecasting Application
Year: 2025
Fire activities introduce hazardous impacts on the environment and public health by emitting various chemical species into the atmosphere. Most operational air quality forecast (AQF) models estimate smoke emissions based on the latest available satellite fire products, which may not represent real-time fire behaviors without considering fire spread. Hence, a novel machine learning (ML) based fire spread forecast model, the Fire Intensity and spRead forecAst (FIRA), is developed for AQF model applications. FIRA aims to improve the performance of AQF models by providing realistic, dynamic fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Designing Burn Windows for Integrated Fire Management in Wetlands: Why Should Flooding Not Be Overlooked?
Year: 2025
Changes in natural wildfire patterns can cause significant impacts on biodiversity, health, and economies. This has sparked discussions on better fire management. One strategy used by countries is Integrated Fire Management (IFM), with prescribed burning as one of the main tools. Prescribed burns effectively depend on specific burn windows. These windows, defined as flood-free areas like savannas, may not suit wetlands due to the influence of flooding on factors like fuel availability. We examined how hydrological patterns affect burn windows in wetlands, using the Pantanal as a model—the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fine Particulate Matter From 2020 California Wildfires and Mental Health–Related Emergency Department Visits
Year: 2025
Importance: A growing body of research suggests that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5; particle size 2.5 microns or smaller) may be associated with mental health outcomes. However, the potential impact of wildfire-specific PM2.5 exposure on mental health remains underexplored.Objective: To investigate whether wildfire-specific PM2.5 exposure may be associated with emergency department (ED) visits for mental health conditions, including all-cause and for psychoactive substance use, nonmood psychotic disorders, anxiety, depression, and other mood-affective disorders during the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes
Year: 2025
Altered fire regimes are a global challenge, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, which modifies fire weather and prolongs fire seasons. These changing conditions heighten the vulnerability of ecosystems and human populations to the impacts of wildfires on the environment, society, and the economy. The rapid pace of these changes exposes significant gaps in knowledge, tools, technology, and governance structures needed to adopt informed, holistic approaches to fire management that address both current and future challenges. Integrated Fire Management is an approach that combines fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
COVID‐19 Fueled an Elevated Number of Human‐Caused Ignitions in the Western United States During the 2020 Wildfire Season
Year: 2025
The area burned in the western United States during the 2020 fire season was the greatest in the modern era. Here we show that the number of human-caused fires in 2020 also was elevated, nearly 20% higher than the 1992–2019 average. Although anomalously dry conditions enabled ignitions to spread and contributed to record area burned, these conditions alone do not explain the surge in the number of human-caused ignitions. We argue that behavioral shifts aimed at curtailing the spread of COVID-19 altered human-environment interactions to favor increased ignitions. For example, the number of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Household needs among wildfire survivors in the 2017 Northern California wildfires
Year: 2025
Wildfires are impacting communities globally, with California wildfires often breaking records of size and destructiveness. Knowing how communities are affected by these wildfires is vital to understanding recovery. We sought to identify impacted communities' post-wildfire needs and characterize how those needs change over time. The WHAT-Now study deployed a survey that was made publicly available for communities affected by the October 2017 Northern California wildfires or the accompanying smoke at beginning approximately four months post-fire with the vast majority completed by nine months…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Going slow to go fast: landscape designs to achieve multiple benefits
Year: 2025
Introduction: Growing concerns about fire across the western United States, and commensurate emphasis on treating expansive areas over the next 2 decades, have created a need to develop tools for managers to assess management benefits and impacts across spatial scales. We modeled outcomes associated with two common forest management objectives: fire risk reduction (fire), and enhancing multiple resource benefits (ecosystem resilience).Method: We evaluated the compatibility of these two objectives across ca. 1-million ha in the central Sierra Nevada,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States
Year: 2025
Climate change has increased forest fire extent in temperate and boreal North America. Here, we quantified the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to human mortality and economic burden from exposure to wildfire particulate matter at the county and state level across the contiguous US (2006 to 2020) by integrating climate projections, climate-wildfire models, wildfire smoke models, and emission and health impact modeling. Climate change contributed to approximately 15,000 wildfire particulate matter deaths over 15 years with interannual variability ranging from 130 (95% confidence…
Climate Change and Fire, Economic Impacts of Fire, Smoke and Air Quality, Social and Community Impacts of Fire
Publication Type: Journal Article
The role of fuel treatments during incident management
Year: 2025
BackgroundForest fuel reduction treatments are intended to mitigate negative impacts from wildland fires, protect communities, and support firefighting. Understanding fuel treatment use is important for evaluating treatment effectiveness, which, in turn, can inform the strategic planning and design of treatments. A relatively understudied aspect of fuel treatments is how existing fuel treatments are incorporated into firefighting (i.e., incident management). In this paper, we explore how fuel treatments are used by firefighters and Incident Management Teams during fires …
fuels-reduction treatments, incident command system, firefighting, incident management teams, incident management teams
Publication Type: Journal Article
Evidence for strong bottom-up controls on fire severity during extreme events
Year: 2025
BackgroundRecord fire years in recent decades have challenged post-fire forest recovery in the western United States and beyond. To improve management responses, it is critical that we understand the conditions under which management can mitigate severe wildfire impacts, and when it cannot. Here, we evaluated the influence of top-down and bottom-up fire severity forcings on 17 wildfires occurring during two consecutive record-setting years in the eastern Cascade Mountains of Washington State. Despite much of the area having been burned after an extended period of fire…
Fire Effects and Fire Ecology, Fire History, Fuels and Fuel Treatments, Restoration and Hazardous Fuel Reduction
Publication Type: Journal Article
Unpacking the Taxonomy of Wildland Fire Collaboratives in the United States West: Impact of Response Diversity on Social-Ecological Resilience
Year: 2025
We offer the first study unpacking the taxonomy of collaboratives that undertake wildland fire management and how that taxonomy relates to resilience. We developed a comprehensive inventory totaling 133 collaboratives across twelve states in the western United States. We extracted each collaborative’s vision, mission, program goals, actions, and stakeholder composition. Based on this data we summarize temporal and spatial trends in collaborative formation and discuss formation drivers. Furthermore, we developed a cluster map of collaboratives based on patterns of co-occurrence of…
collaborative governance, social ecological systems, Social and ecological resilience, adaptive management
Publication Type: Journal Article
Geolces: Geospatial Support for Evaluating Wildland Firefighter Lookouts, Communications, Escape Routes, and Safety Zones
Year: 2025
Wildland firefighters play a critical role in managing the complex relationship between humans and fire. To reduce the inherent risks that come with this role, firefighters use safety protocols such as lookouts, communications, escape routes, and safety zones (LCES). Currently, LCES implementation is conducted on the ground with limited support from geospatial information, despite the protocol’s inherently spatial nature. This study introduces GeoLCES: an analytical framework designed to enhance LCES implementation using remote sensing and geospatial modeling. GeoLCES comprises three…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Combining ecophysiology and combustion traits to predict conifer live fuel moisture content: a pyro-ecophysiological approach
Year: 2025
Background Fuel moisture content is a key driver of fuel flammability and subsequent fire activity and behavior worldwide. Dead fuels passively exchange moisture with the atmosphere while live fuel moisture is confounded by a mixture of seasonal carbon and water cycle dynamics. Despite the significance of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) on wildland fire potential, attempts to model its variations seasonally and between species are often inconclusive or unsuccessful.ResultsHere we present a mechanistic LFMC model that uses easily measured live fuel…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Smoke on the hill: A comparative study of wildfire and two communities
Year: 2003
Wildfire represents a serious challenge to communities in the rural West. After decades of fire suppression, land managers now perceive a greater role for wildfire in the ecosystem. In the meantime, migration patterns from urban to rural settings have increased the number of people living in forested areas throughout the West, therefore; wildfires are a threat to more homes than ever in the region. This study focuses on two communities’ response to wildfires during the intense fire season of 1994. Through qualitative research methods, the study analyzes these diverse responses in the context…
Publication Type: Journal Article