Research Database
Displaying 101 - 120 of 229
Hazards of Risk: Identifying Plausible Community Wildfire Disasters in Low-Frequency Fire Regimes
Year: 2021
Optimized wildfire risk reduction strategies are generally not resilient in the event of unanticipated, or very rare events, presenting a hazard in risk assessments which otherwise rely on actuarial, mean-based statistics to characterize risk. This hazard of actuarial approaches to wildfire risk is perhaps particularly evident for infrequent fire regimes such as those in the temperate forests west of the Cascade Range crest in Oregon and Washington, USA (“Westside”), where fire return intervals often exceed 200 years but where fires can be extremely intense and devastating. In this study, we…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fire and Forests in the 21st Century: Managing Resilience Under Changing Climates and Fire Regimes in USA Forests
Year: 2021
Higher temperatures, lower snowpacks, drought, and extended dry periods have contributed to increased wildfire activity in recent decades. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of large fires, the cumulative area burned, andfire suppression costs and risks in many areas of the USA. Fire regimes are likely to change due to interactions among climate, fire, and other stressors and disturbances; resulting in persistent changes in forest structure and function. The remainder of the twenty-first century will present substantial challenges, as natural resource managers are faced with…
Publication Type: Book Chapter
Tamm review: The effects of prescribed fire on wildfire regimes and impacts: A framework for comparison
Year: 2020
Prescribed fire can result in significant benefits to ecosystems and society. Examples include improved wildlifehabitat, enhanced biodiversity, reduced threat of destructive wildfire, and enhanced ecosystem resilience.Prescribed fire can also come with costs, such as reduced air quality and impacts to fire sensitive species. To planfor appropriate use of prescribed fire, managers need information on the tradeoffs between prescribed fire andwildfire regimes. In this study, we argue that information on tradeoffs should be presented at spatial andtemporal scales commensurate with the scales at…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildfire recovery as a “hot moment” for creating fire-adapted communities
Year: 2020
Recent decades have witnessed an escalation in the social, economic, and ecological impacts of wildfires worldwide. Wildfire losses stem from the complex interplay of social and ecological forces at multiple scales, including global climate change, regional wildfire regimes altered by human activities, and locally managed wildland-urban interface (WUI) zones where homes increasingly encroach upon wildland vegetation. The coupled nature of the human-ecological system is precisely what makes reducing wildfire risks challenging. As losses from wildfire have accelerated, an emerging research and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Year: 2020
Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs.
Publication Type: Journal Article
Transformation of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) tree crowns by dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium tsugense, Viscaceae)
Year: 2020
Dwarf mistletoes (Arceuthobium species) are arboreal, hemiparasitic plants of conifers that can change the structure and function of the tree crown. Hemlock dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium tsugense subsp. tsugense) principally parasitizes western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and effects 10.8% of all western hemlock trees in Oregon, USA. In this study, we climbed 16 western hemlock trees (age 97–321 years, height 33–54.7 m) across a gradient of infection (0%–100% of branches infected) and measured occurrence of all dwarf mistletoe infections, dwarf mistletoe caused deformities, foliage, branch…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Examining post-fire vegetation recovery with Landsat time series analysis in three western North American forest types
Year: 2019
Background: Few studies have examined post-fire vegetation recovery in temperate forest ecosystems with Landsat time series analysis. We analyzed time series of Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) derived from LandTrendr spectral-temporal segmentation fitting to examine post-fire NBR recovery for several wildfires that occurred in three different coniferous forest types in western North America during the years 2000 to 2007. We summarized NBR recovery trends, and investigated the influence of burn severity, post-fire climate, and topography on post-fire vegetation recovery via random forest (RF)…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Near-future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States
Year: 2019
Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about the potential for forest mortality to impact forest structure, forest ecosystem services, and the economic vitality of communities in the coming decades. We used the Community Land Model (CLM) to determine forest vulnerability to mortality from drought and fire by the year 2049. We modified CLM to represent 13 major forest types in the western United States and ran simulations at a 4‐km grid resolution, driven with climate projections from two general circulation models under one…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A System Dynamics Model Examining Alternative Wildfire Response Policies
Year: 2019
In this paper, we develop a systems dynamics model of a coupled human and natural fire-prone system to evaluate changes in wildfire response policy. A primary motivation is exploring the implications of expanding the pace and scale of using wildfires as a forest restoration tool. We implement a model of a forested system composed of multiple successional classes, each with different structural characteristics and propensities for burning at high severity. We then simulate a range of alternative wildfire response policies, which are defined as the combination of a target burn rate (or…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Designing Operationally Relevant Daily Large Fire Containment Strategies Using Risk Assessment Results
Year: 2019
In this study, we aim to advance the optimization of daily large fire containment strategies for ground-based suppression resources by leveraging fire risk assessment results commonly used by fire managers in the western USA. We begin from an existing decision framework that spatially overlays fire risk assessment results with pre-identified potential wildland fire operational delineations (PODs), and then clusters PODs into a response POD (rPOD) using a mixed integer program (MIP) model to minimize expected loss. We improve and expand upon this decision framework through enhanced fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Prescribed fire regimes subtly alter ponderosa pine forest plant community structure
Year: 2019
Prescribed fire is an active management tool used to address wildfire hazard and ecological concerns associated with fire exclusion and suppression over the past century. Despite widespread application in the United States, there is considerable inconsistency and lack of information regarding the extent to which specific outcomes are achieved and under what prescribed fire regimes, particularly in regard to ecological goals related to plant community structure. We quantify differences and patterns in plant functional group abundance, species richness and diversity, and other key forest…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Should we leave now? Behavioral factors in evacuation under wildfire threat
Year: 2019
Wildfires pose a serious threat to life in many countries. For police, fire and emergency services authorities in most jurisdictions in North America and Australia evacuation is now the option that is preferred overwhelmingly. Wildfire evacuation modeling can assist authorities in planning evacuation responses to future threats. Understanding residents' behavior under wildfire threat may assist in wildfire evacuation modeling. This paper reviews North American and Australian research into wildfire evacuation behavior published between January 2005 and June 2017. Wildfire evacuation policies…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Use of Science and Modeling by Practitioners in Landscape-Scale Management Decisions
Year: 2019
Scientific knowledge and tools have central roles in contemporary federal forest programs that promote restoration in large landscapes and across ownerships. Although we know much about the role of science in decisionmaking and ways that science can be better linked to practice, we know less about manager perspectives about science and science tools, and the perceived role of both in planning. We surveyed Forest Service resource managers in the western United States to address this knowledge gap. Respondents engaged most frequently with science via reading research publications; direct…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Air-quality challenges of prescribed fire in the complex terrain and wildland urban interface surrounding Bend, Oregon
Year: 2019
Prescribed fires in forest ecosystems can negatively impact human health and safety by transporting smoke downwind into nearby communities. Smoke transport to communities is known to occur around Bend, Oregon, United States of America (USA), where burning at the wildland–urban interface in the Deschutes National Forest resulted in smoke intrusions into populated areas. The number of suitable days for prescribed fires is limited due to the necessity for moderate weather conditions, as well as wind directions that do not carry smoke into Bend. To better understand the conditions leading to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Increasing trends in high-severity fire in the southwestern USA from 1984 to 2015
Year: 2019
In the last three decades, over 4.1 million hectares have burned in Arizona and New Mexico and the largest fires in documented history have occurred in the past two decades. Changes in burn severity over time, however, have not been well documented in forest and woodland ecosystems in the southwestern US. Using remotely sensed burn severity data from 1621 fires (>404 ha), we assessed trends from 1984 to 2015 in Arizona and New Mexico in (1) number of fires and total area burned in all vegetation types; (2) area burned, area of high-severity, and percent of high-severity fire in all forest…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Advancing the Science of Wildland Fire Dynamics Using Process-Based Models
Year: 2018
As scientists and managers seek to understand fire behavior in conditions that extend beyond the limits of our current empirical models and prior experiences, they will need new tools that foster a more mechanistic understanding of the processes driving fire dynamics and effects. Here we suggest that process-based models are powerful research tools that are useful for investigating a large number of emerging questions in wildland fire sciences. These models can play a particularly important role in advancing our understanding, in part, because they allow their users to evaluate the potential…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Landscapes 101: Understanding Landscape Approaches to Forest Restoration and Management
Year: 2018
About Go Big or Go Home?: The goals of this research project were to analyze how public land managers and stakeholders in Oregon’s east Cascades can plan and manage at landscape scales using scientific research and participatory simulation modeling (Envision). To learn more, visit: gbgh.forestry.oregonstate.edu
Publication Type: Report
Regional and local controls on historical fire regimes of dry forests and woodlands in the Rogue River Basin, Oregon, USA
Year: 2018
Fire regimes structure plant communities worldwide with regional and local factors, including anthropogenic fire management, influencing fire frequency and severity. Forests of the Rogue River Basin in Oregon, USA, are both productive and fire-prone due to ample winter precipitation and summer drought; yet management in this region is strongly influenced by forest practices that depend on fire exclusion. Regionally, climate change is increasing fire frequency, elevating the importance of understanding historically frequent-fire regimes. We use cross-dated fire-scars to characterize historical…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Prescribed fire regimes subtly alter ponderosa pine forest plant community structure
Year: 2018
Prescribed fire is an active management tool used to address wildfire hazard and ecological concerns associated with fire exclusion and suppression over the past century. Despite widespread application in the United States, there is considerable inconsistency and lack of information regarding the extent to which specific outcomes are achieved and under what prescribed fire regimes, particularly in regard to ecological goals related to plant community structure. We quantify differences and patterns in plant functional group abundance, species richness and diversity, and other key forest…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Science and Collaborative Processes
Year: 2018
About Go Big or Go Home?: The goals of this research project were to analyze how public land managers and stakeholders in Oregon’s east Cascades can plan and manage at landscape scales using scientific research and participatory simulation modeling (Envision). To learn more, visit: gbgh.forestry.oregonstate.edu
Publication Type: Report