Research Database
Displaying 21 - 40 of 51
Fire refugia are robust across Western US forested ecoregions, 1986–2021
Year: 2023
In the Western US, area burned and fire size have increased due to the influences of climate change, long-term fire suppression leading to higher fuel loads, and increased ignitions. However, evidence is less conclusive about increases in fire severity within these growing wildfire extents. Fires burn unevenly across landscapes, leaving islands of unburned or less impacted areas, known as fire refugia. Fire refugia may enhance post-fire ecosystem function and biodiversity by providing refuge to species and functioning as seed sources after fires. In this study, we evaluated whether the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Social drivers of vulnerability to wildfire disasters: A review of the literature
Year: 2023
The increase of wildfire disasters globally has highlighted the need to understand and mitigate human vulnerability to wildfire. In response, there has been a substantial uptick in efforts to characterize and quantify wildfire vulnerability. Such efforts have largely focused on quantifying potential wildfire exposure and frequently overlooked the individual and community vulnerability to wildfire. Here, we review the emergent literature on social vulnerability to wildfire by synthesizing factors related to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity that contribute to a population’s or…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Social Vulnerability in USCommunities Affected by WildfireSmoke, 2011 to 2021
Year: 2023
Objectives. To describe demographic and social characteristics of US communities exposed to wildfire smoke.
Methods. Using satellite-collected data on wildfire smoke with the locations of population centers in the coterminous United States, we identified communities potentially exposed to light-, medium-, and heavy-density smoke plumes for each day from 2011 to 2021. We linked days of exposure to smoke in each category of smoke plume density with 2010 US Census data and community characteristics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Social Vulnerability Index to describe…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Refuge-yeah or refuge-nah? Predicting locations of forest resistance and recruitment in a fiery world
Year: 2023
Climate warming, land use change, and altered fire regimes are driving ecological transformations that can have critical effects on Earth's biota. Fire refugia—locations that are burned less frequently or severely than their surroundings—may act as sites of relative stability during this period of rapid change by being resistant to fire and supporting post-fire recovery in adjacent areas. Because of their value to forest ecosystem persistence, there is an urgent need to anticipate where refugia are most likely to be found and where they align with environmental conditions that support post-…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Social vulnerability of the people exposed to wildfires in U.S. West Coast states
Year: 2023
Understanding of the vulnerability of populations exposed to wildfires is limited. We used an index from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to assess the social vulnerability of populations exposed to wildfire from 2000–2021 in California, Oregon, and Washington, which accounted for 90% of exposures in the western United States. The number of people exposed to fire from 2000–2010 to 2011–2021 increased substantially, with the largest increase, nearly 250%, for people with high social vulnerability. In Oregon and Washington, a higher percentage of exposed people were highly…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fire frequency and vulnerability in California
Year: 2023
Wildfires pose a large and growing threat to communities across California, and understanding fire vulnerability and impacts can enable more effective risk management. Government hazard maps are often used to identify at-risk areas, but hazard zones and fire experience may have different implications for communities. This analysis of three decades of fire footprints, hazard maps, and census and real estate data shows that communities with high fire experience differ substantially from communities with high fire hazard. High-hazard communities average higher incomes than low- and no-hazard…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Power Grid/Wildfire Nexus: Using GIS and Satellite Remote Sensing to Identify Vulnerabilities
Year: 2023
The effects of wildfire on the power grid are a recurring concern for utility companies who need reliable information about where to prioritize infrastructure hardening. Though there are existing data layers that provide measures of burn probability, these models predominately consider long-term climate variables, which are not helpful when analyzing current season trends. Utility companies need data that are temporally and locally relevant. To determine the primary drivers of burn probability relative to power grid vulnerability, this study assessed potential wildfire drivers that are both…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Towards an Integrated Approach to Wildfire Risk Assessment: When, Where, What and How May the Landscapes Burn
Year: 2023
This paper presents a review of concepts related to wildfire risk assessment, including the determination of fire ignition and propagation (fire danger), the extent to which fire may spatially overlap with valued assets (exposure), and the potential losses and resilience to those losses (vulnerability). This is followed by a brief discussion of how these concepts can be integrated and connected to mitigation and adaptation efforts. We then review operational fire risk systems in place in various parts of the world. Finally, we propose an integrated fire risk system being developed under the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Human ignitions on private lands drive USFS cross‑boundary wildfire transmission and community impacts in the western US
Year: 2022
Wildfires in the western United States (US) are increasingly expensive, destructive, and deadly. Reducing wildfire losses is particularly challenging when fires frequently start on one land tenure and damage natural or developed assets on other ownerships. Managing wildfire risk in multijurisdictional landscapes has recently become a centerpiece of wildfire strategic planning, legislation, and risk research. However, important empirical knowledge gaps remain regarding cross-boundary fire activity in the western US. Here, we use lands administered by the US Forest Service as a study system to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability
Year: 2022
Extreme wildfires extensively impact human health and the environment. Increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD) has led to a chronic increase in wildfire area in the western United States, yet some regions have been more affected than others. Here we show that for the same increase in VPD, burned area increases more in regions where vegetation moisture shows greater sensitivity to water limitation (plant-water sensitivity; R2 = 0.71). This has led to rapid increases in human exposure to wildfire risk, both because the population living in areas with high plant-water sensitivity grew 50%…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Interactions Between Fire Refugia and Climate-Environment Conditions Determine Mesic Subalpine Forest Recovery After Large and Severe Wildfires
Year: 2022
Infrequent stand-replacing wildfires are characteristic of mesic and/or cool conifer forests in western North America, where forest recovery within high-severity burn patch interiors can be slow, yet successful over long temporal periods (decades to centuries). Increasing fire frequency and high-severity burn patch size, under a warming climate, however, may challenge post-fire forest recovery, promoting landscape-level shifts in forest structure, composition, and distribution of non-forest patches. Crucial to a delay and/or impediment to this shift, fire refugia (i.e., remnant seed sources)…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Relationships between building features and wildfire damage in California, USA and Pedrógão Grande, Portugal
Year: 2022
Background: Buildings in communities near wildlands, in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), can experience wildfire damage.Aims: To quantitatively assess the relationship between building features and damage, a building wildfire resistance index is developed and validated with the 2013–2017 CAL FIRE (DINS) database from California, USA, and the 2017 Pedrógão Grande Fire Complex post-fire investigation from Portugal.Methods: Three statistical dependence tests are compared to evaluate the relationship between selected building features and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Evaluating rural Pacific Northwest towns for wildfire evacuation vulnerability
Year: 2021
Wildfire is an annual threat for many rural communities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. In some severe events, evacuation is one potential course of action to gain safety from an advancing wildfire. Since most evacuations occur in a personal vehicle along the surrounding road network, the quality of this network is a critical component of a community's vulnerability to wildfire. In this paper, we leverage a high-resolution spatial dataset of wildfire burn probability and mean fireline intensity to conduct a regional-scale screening of wildfire evacuation vulnerability…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Stop going around in circles: towards a reconceptualisation of disaster risk management phases
Year: 2021
Purpose The way that disasters are managed, or indeed mis-managed, is often represented diagrammatically as a “disaster cycle”. The cyclical aspects of the disaster (risk) management concept, comprised of numerous operational phases, have, in recent years, been criticised for conceptualising and representing disasters in an overly simplistic way that typically starts with a disaster “event” – and subsequently leads onto yet another disaster. Such cyclical thinking has been proven to not be very useful for the complexities associated with understanding disasters and their risks. This paper…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Where and why do conifer forests persist in refugia through multiple fire events?
Year: 2021
Changing wildfire regimes are causing rapid shifts in forests worldwide. In particular, forested landscapes that burn repeatedly in relatively quick succession may be at risk of conversion when pre-fire vegetation cannot recover between fires. Fire refugia (areas that burn less frequently or severely than the surrounding landscape) support post-fire ecosystem recovery and the persistence of vulnerable species in fire-prone landscapes. Observed and projected fire-induced forest losses highlight the need to understand where and why forests persist in refugia through multiple fires. This…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Disjunct and decoupled? The persistence of a fire-sensitive conifer soecies in a historically frequent-fire landscape
Year: 2020
Local and regional species extirpations may become more common as changing climate and disturbance regimesaccelerate species’ in situ range contractions. Identifying locations that function as both climate and disturbancerefugia is critical for biodiversity conservation. Here, we investigate the persistence of a disjunct, fire-sensitiveconifer population, yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis), in the historically frequent-fire landscape of the BlueMountains in eastern Oregon, USA. We used tree rings to reconstruct multi-century fire histories, which werethen used to compare historical mean…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Tribes & Climate Change
Year: 2020
Native Americans rely on tribally important ecosystem services such as traditional foods, hunting, timber production, non-timber forest resources (recreation, water), and cultural resources. Unfortunately, many of these resources may be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. A research team sought to answer the question: Where and which tribally-important ecosystem services will be affected by climate change in the Pacific Northwest? They used projections from climate and vegetation models and stakeholder input to demonstrate a generalizable approach for assessing possible…
Publication Type: Web project page
The 1994 Eastside screens large-tree harvest limit: review of science relevant to forest planning 25 years later
Year: 2020
In 1994, a large-tree harvest standard known as the “21-inch rule” was appliedto land and resource management plans of national forests in eastern Oregon andWashington (hereafter, the “east side”) to halt the loss of large, old, live, and deadtrees and old forest patches. These trees and forest patches have distinct ecological,economic, and social values, as reflected in widespread fish and wildlife use,public support for protecting them, and commercial interest in harvesting them,thus they have been the topic of much discussion and debate. At the request ofregional Forest Service managers,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Social Vulnerability and Wildfire in the Wildland-Urban Interface: Literature synthesis
Year: 2019
The overall objective of this paper is to clarify areas of debate, clearly define and contrast disparate approaches, and synthesize findings that may help address vulnerability to wildfires and other natural hazards. While land managers and fire personnel might find it pertinent to approach biophysical and social issues separately, addressing both aspects of wildfire hazard can be productive for minimizing risk and empowering communities, neighborhoods, and households to prepare and recover from wildfire events. We aim to provide a practical grasp of social vulnerability research as it…
Publication Type: Report
Social Vulnerability and Wildfire in the Wildland-Urban Interface
Year: 2019
People living in the Pacific Northwest confrontrisks associated with environmentalhazards such as wildfire. Vulnerability towildfire hazard is commonly recognized as beingspatially distributed according to geographic conditionsthat collectively determine the probabilityof exposure. For example, exposure to wildfirehazard is higher for people living in rural, forestedsettings than in a strictly urban neighborhood becauserural housing is built in close proximity tothe threat source, e.g., flammable landscapes suchas forests and chaparral. Yet, even if levels of exposureare held constant, not…
Publication Type: Report