Research Database
Displaying 141 - 160 of 170
Mapping the daily progression of large wildland fires using MODIS active fire data
Year: 2014
High temporal resolution information on burnt area is needed to improve fire behaviour and emissions models. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal anomaly and active fire product (MO(Y)D14) as input to a kriging interpolation to derive continuous maps of the timing of burnt area for 16 large wildland fires. For each fire, parameters for the kriging model were defined using variogram analysis. The optimal number of observations used to estimate a pixel’s time of burning varied between four and six among the fires studied. The median standard error from…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Effectiveness and Limitations of Fuel Modeling Using the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator
Year: 2014
Fuel treatment effectiveness is often evaluated with fire behavior modeling systems that use fuel models to generate fire behavior outputs. How surface fuels are assigned,either using one of the 53 stylized fuel models or developing custom fuel models, can affect predicted fire behavior. We collected surface and canopy fuels data beforeand 1, 2, 5, and 8 years after prescribed fire treatments across 10 national forests in California. Two new methods of assigning fuel models within the Fire and FuelsExtension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator were evaluated. Field-based values for dead and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Examining fire-prone forest landscapes as coupled human and natural systems
Year: 2014
Fire-prone landscapes are not well studied as coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and present many challengesfor understanding and promoting adaptive behaviors and institutions. Here, we explore how heterogeneity, feedbacks, and externaldrivers in this type of natural hazard system can lead to complexity and can limit the development of more adaptive approaches topolicy and management. Institutions and social networks can counter these limitations and promote adaptation. We also develop aconceptual model that includes a robust characterization of social subsystems for a fire-prone…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Mapping day-of-burning with coarse-resolution satellite fire-detection data
Year: 2014
Evaluating the influence of observed daily weather on observed fire-related effects (e.g. smoke production, carbon emissions and burn severity) often involves knowing exactly what day any given area has burned. As such, several studies have used fire progression maps – in which the perimeter of an actively burning fire is mapped at a fairly high temporal resolution – or MODIS satellite data to determine the day-of-burning, thereby allowing an evaluation of the influence of daily weather. However, fire progression maps have many caveats, the most substantial being that they are rarely mapped…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States
Year: 2013
Increased wildfire activity (e.g. number of starts, area burned, fire behaviour) across the western United States in recent decades has heightened interest in resolving climate–fire relationships. Macroscale climate–fire relationships were examined in forested and non-forested lands for eight Geographic Area Coordination Centers in the western United States, using area burned derived from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity dataset (1984–2010). Fire-specific biophysical variables including fire danger and water balance metrics were considered in addition to standard climate variables of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Optimising fuel treatments over time and space
Year: 2013
Fuel treatments have been widely used as a tool to reduce catastrophic wildland fire risks in many forests around the world. However, it is a challenging task for forest managers to prioritise where, when and how to implement fuel treatments across a large forest landscape. In this study, an optimisation model was developed for long-term fuel management decisions at a landscape scale. Using a simulated annealing algorithm, the model optimises locations and timing of fuel treatments, while considering changes in forest dynamics over time, fire behaviour and spread, values at risk, and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Examination of the wind speed limit function in the Rothermel surface fire spread model
Year: 2013
The Rothermel surface fire spread model includes a wind speed limit, above which predicted rate of spread is constant. Complete derivation of the wind limit as a function of reaction intensity is given, along with an alternate result based on a changed assumption. Evidence indicates that both the original and the revised wind limits are too restrictive. Wind limit is based in part on data collected on the 7 February 1967 Tasmanian grassland fires. A reanalysis of the data indicates that these fires might not have been spreading in fully cured continuous grasslands, as assumed. In addition,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Modelling conditional burn probability patterns for large wildland fires
Year: 2013
We present a technique for modelling conditional burn probability patterns in two dimensions for large wildland fires. The intended use for the model is strategic program planning when information about future fire weather and event durations is unavailable and estimates of the average probabilistic shape and extent of large fires on a landscape are needed. To model average conditional burn probability patterns, we organised historical fire data from Yellowstone National Park, USA, into a set of grids; one grid per fire. We captured various spatial relationships inherent in the gridded data…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Assessing forest vegetation and fire simulation model performance after the Cold Springs wildfire, Washington, USA
Year: 2013
Given that resource managers rely on computer simulation models when it is difficult or expensive to obtain vital information directly, it is important to evaluate how well a particular model satisfies applications for which it is designed. The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is used widely for forest management in the US, and its scope and complexity continue to increase. This paper focuses on the accuracy of estimates made by the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE-FVS) predictions through comparisons between model outputs and measured post-fire conditions for the Cold Springs wildfire and on…
Publication Type: Journal Article
ArcFuels10 System Overview
Year: 2013
Fire behavior modeling and geospatial analyses can provide tremendous insight for land managers as they grapple with the complex problems frequently encountered in wildfire risk assessments and fire and fuels management planning. Fuel management often is a particularly complicated process in which the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments need to be demonstrated in the context of land management goals and public expectations. The fuel treatment planning process is complicated by the lack of data assimilation among fire behavior models and weak linkages to geographic information…
Publication Type: Report
Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach
Year: 2013
We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential future changes in species composition and community structure. Our results suggest that: (1) legacy effects incorporated in state-and-transition models realistically dampen climate change effects on vegetation; (2) species-specific response to fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus fire modeling system
Year: 2013
The BehavePlus Fire Modeling System is among the most widely used systems for wildland fire prediction. It is designed for use in a range of tasks including wildfire behaviour prediction, prescribed fire planning, fire investigation, fuel hazard assessment, fire model understanding, communication and research. BehavePlus is based on mathematical models for fire behaviour, fire effects and fire environment. It is a point system for which conditions are constant for each calculation, but is designed to encourage examination of the effect of a range of conditions through tables and graphs.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Analysis of Meteorological Conditions for the Yakima Smoke Intrusion Case Study, 28 September 2009
Year: 2013
On 28 September 2009, the Naches Ranger District on the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest in south-central Washington State ignited an 800-ha prescribed fire. Later that afternoon, elevated PM2.5 concentrations and visible smoke were reported in Yakima, Washington, about 40 km east of the burn unit. The U.S. National Weather Service forecast for the day had predicted good dispersion conditions and winds that would carry the smoke to the less populated area north of Yakima. We undertook a case study of this event to determine whether conditions leading to the intrusion of the smoke plume into…
Publication Type: Report
Fuels and Fire Behavior Dynamics in Bark Beetle-Attacked Forests in Western North America and Implications for Fire Management
Year: 2012
Declining forest health attributed to associations between extensive bark beetle-caused tree mortality, accumulations of hazardous fuels, wildfire, and climate change have catalyzed changes in forest health and wildfire protection policies of land management agencies. These changes subsequently prompted research to investigate the extent to which bark beetle-altered fuel complexes affect fire behavior. Although not yet rigorously quantified, the results of the investigations, in addition to a growing body of operational experience and research, indicates that predictable changes in surface,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions
Year: 2012
Conservation science strives to inform management decisions. Applying niche models in concert with future climate projections to project species vulnerability to extinction, range size loss, or distribution shifts has emerged as a potentially useful tool for informing resource management decisions. Making climate change niche modeling useful to conservation decisions requires centering studies on the types of decisions that are made regarding the focal taxa of a niche model study. Recent recommendations for climate adaptation strategies suggest four types of decision makers: policy, habitat…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate Change in Grasslands, Shrublands, and Deserts of the Interior American West: A Review and Needs Assessment
Year: 2012
Recent research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the western interior of the United States in response to climate change. This volume reviews existing climate models that predict species and vegetation changes in the western United States, and it synthesizes knowledge about climate change impacts on the native fauna and flora of grasslands, shrublands and deserts of the interior American West. Species' responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment…
Publication Type: Report
Climate Change and Disruptions to Global Fire Activity
Year: 2012
Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.58 resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fourmile Canyon Fire Findings
Year: 2012
The Fourmile Canyon Fire burned in the fall of 2010 in the Rocky Mountain Front Range adjacent to Boulder, Colorado. The fire occurred in steep, rugged terrain, primarily on privately owned mixed ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests. The fire started on September 6 when the humidity of the air was very dry (≈ <7%) and the winds were steadily blowing in the range of 15 miles per hour and gusting to over 40 miles per hour. These conditions prevailed for most of the first day when the fire burned approximately 5,700 acres and destroyed 162 homes. Because of the windy conditions, aircraft…
Publication Type: Report
Atmospheric Interactions with Wildland Fire Behaviour II. Plume and Vortex Dynamics
Year: 2012
This paper is the second of two reviewing scientific literature from 100 years of research addressing interactions between the atmosphere and fire behaviour. These papers consider research on the interactions between the fuels burning at any instant and the atmosphere, and the interactions between the atmosphere and those fuels that will eventually burn in a given fire. The first paper reviews the progression from the surface atmospheric properties of temperature, humidity and wind to horizontal and vertical synoptic structures and ends with vertical atmospheric profiles. This second paper…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications
Year: 2012
Projecting future distributions of ecosystems or species climate niches has widely been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change. However, variability in such projections for the future periods, particularly the variability arising from uncertain future climates, remains a critical challenge for incorporating these projections into climate change adaptation strategies. We combined the use of a robust statistical modeling technique with a simple consensus approach consolidating projected outcomes for multiple climate change scenarios, and exemplify how the results could guide…
Publication Type: Journal Article