Research Database
Displaying 1 - 6 of 6
Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States
Year: 2014
Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF ≥ 50,000 ac ~ 20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p ≤ 0.05) increases in VLWF probability for climate of the mid-21st century (2031–2060) relative to contemporary climate are found, for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The largest differences are in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Management for Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak Suppression: Does Relevant Science Support Current Policy?
Year: 2014
While the use of timber harvests is generally accepted as an effective approach to controlling bark beetles during outbreaks, in reality there has been a dearth of monitoring to assess outcomes, and failures are often not reported. Additionally, few studies have focused on how these treatments affect forest structure and function over the long term, or our forests’ ability to adapt to climate change. Despite this, there is a widespread belief in the policy arena that timber harvesting is an effective and necessary tool to address beetle infestations. That belief has led to numerous proposals…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fire behavior in masticated fuels: A review
Year: 2014
Mastication is an increasingly common fuels treatment that redistributes “ladder” fuels to the forest floor to reduce vertical fuel continuity, crown fire potential, and fireline intensity, but fuel models do not exist for predicting fire behavior in these fuel types. Recent fires burning in masticated fuels have behaved in unexpected and contradictory ways, likely because the shredded, compact fuel created when trees and shrubs are masticated contains irregularly shaped pieces in mixtures quite different from other woody fuels. We review fuels characteristics and fire behavior in masticated…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Effectiveness and Limitations of Fuel Modeling Using the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator
Year: 2014
Fuel treatment effectiveness is often evaluated with fire behavior modeling systems that use fuel models to generate fire behavior outputs. How surface fuels are assigned, either using one of the 53 stylized fuel models or developing custom fuel models, can affect predicted fire behavior. We collected surface and canopy fuels data before and 1, 2, 5, and 8 years after prescribed fire treatments across 10 national forests in California. Two new methods of assigning fuel models within the Fire and FuelsExtension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator were evaluated. Field-based values for dead and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Synthesis on crown fire behavior in conifer forests
Year: 2014
Mass media images of raging crown fires have affected how many people view their wildlands. Flames surge and leap dozens and even hundreds of feet into the air; planes zoom above the flames releasing streams of brightly colored retardant; and giant pyrocumulonimbus clouds tower over the landscape. No doubt, it’s dramatic lead story material. But, to many, and especially those in the wildland fire community, this is serious business. Tens of thousands of acres are severely burned in a single day; homes and lives are endangered; and ecosystems are changed dramatically for decades or longer.…
Publication Type: Journal
Simulated western spruce budworm defoliation reduces torching and crowning potential: a sensitivity analysis using a physics-based fire model
Year: 2014
The widespread, native defoliator western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) reduces canopy fuels, which might affect the potential for surface fires to torch (ignite the crowns of individual trees) or crown (spread between tree crowns). However, the effects of defoliation on fire behaviour are poorly understood. We used a physics-based fire model to examine the effects of defoliation and three aspects of how the phenomenon is represented in the model (the spatial distribution of defoliation within tree crowns, potential branchwood drying and model resolution). Our…
Publication Type: Journal Article