Research Database
Displaying 1 - 20 of 117
A historical analysis of factors driving the daily prioritization of wildland fires in California
Year: 2026
During periods of heightened wildland fire activity in the United States, multiagency coordinating groups must prioritize among multiple on-going fires to allocate scarce suppression resources. While many studies have explored factors that influence wildfire suppression expenditures and personnel allocation, understanding the specific factors that affect daily wildfire prioritization has remained unexplored. In this study, we first examine wildfire reporting and ranking processes across different regions of the United States to provide insight into criteria used for fire ranking. We then…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Understanding unmet needs during community wildfire recovery: A case study of smoke damage impacts after the 2021 Marshall Fire
Year: 2026
Efforts to understand, assess, and address diversifying recovery needs have growing relevance as wildfires continue to impact communities. However, little is known about social experiences navigating gaps in assistance funding and support or “unmet needs” in post-fire spaces, particularly for indirect impacts like smoke damage. Determining how affected residents access available information and make decisions related to unmet needs can aid the development of resources and programs that support rapid identification of, and response to, emergent or undocumented impacts during recovery processes…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Understanding rural adaptation to smoke from wildfires and forest management: insights for aligning approaches with community contexts
Year: 2026
BackgroundRural communities are increasingly impacted by smoke produced by wildfires and forest management activties. Understanding local influences on smoke adaptation and mitigation is critical to social adaptation as fire risk continues to rise.AimsWe sought to determine the role of local social context in smoke adaptation and gauge interest in adaptation strategies that might reduce exposure.MethodsWe conducted 46 semi-structured interviews with 56 residents and professionals in Parks, Arizona, USA, a rural community adjacent to public…
Publication Type: Journal Article
An Assessment of Aerial Firefighting Response Times Between Agencies During the 2020 Fire Season in California
Year: 2026
Rapid, well‑coordinated aerial response can be an effective way to limit wildfire growth during the initial‑response period. To date, most studies of wildland fire aviation effectiveness have relied on data from aircraft provided by the United States Forest Service, while other agencies aircraft have received less attention. This study leverages open ADS‑B data to reconstruct second‑by‑second aircraft movements for both the CAL FIRE and USFS aircraft during the 2020 California fire season, allowing a comparison between use of different agency aircraft for the first time. This study…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Three-decade record of contiguous-U.S. national forest wildfires indicates increased density of ignitions near roads
Year: 2026
BackgroundRoads play an important role in managing fire on the national forests. But roads also are known to increase ignitions and damage ecosystems. Roads may limit the size of wildfires, which may be viewed as desirable where fires endanger human life and property or undesirable if roadlessness allows more land to experience the ecological benefits of fire. In this paper, we examine a large, nationwide dataset to determine whether roads on the national forests are associated with higher ignition density, and we examine patterns of fire size to see whether wilderness and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A collaborative, cloud-based decision support system for structured wildfire risk mitigation planning
Year: 2026
Multi-stakeholder planning and prioritization for ecosystem management and wildfire risk mitigation are complicated by the need to balance a multitude of values, goals, viewpoints, and interests across large landscapes. Doing so requires quantifying current conditions, defining management feasibility constraints, modeling complex system responses under different management and disturbance scenarios, quantifying outcomes in terms of social values, weighing and assessing tradeoffs, and identifying optimal strategies. Beginning in the 2010s, structured wildfire risk assessment tools were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Health Impact Analysis of Wildfire Smoke-PM2.5 in Canada (2019–2023)
Year: 2026
Wildfires are a source of air pollution, including PM2.5. Exposure to PM2.5 from wildfire smoke is associated with adverse health effects including premature death and respiratory morbidity. Air quality modeling was performed to quantify seasonal wildfire-PM2.5 exposure across Canada for 2019–2023, and the annual acute and chronic health impacts and economic valuation due to wildfire-PM2.5 exposure were estimated. Exposure to wildfire-PM2.5 varied geospatially and temporally. For 2019–2023, the annual premature deaths attributable to wildfire-PM2.5 ranged from 49 (95% CI: 0–73) to 400 (95% CI…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Prenatal Exposure to Wildfire and Autism in Children
Year: 2026
Chronic health effects of wildfire PM2.5 on neurodevelopmental outcomes are largely unknown. Therefore, the effects of wildfire PM2.5 on autism were assessed in a southern California-based pregnancy cohort using Cox proportional hazard models. Exposure was estimated from 2006 to 2014 at maternal addresses across pregnancy and individual trimesters using three metrics: (1) mean wildfire PM2.5 concentration, (2) number of days of smoke exposure, and (3) number of waves of smoke exposure. Analysis was restricted to days over specific PM2.5 concentration thresholds (3 and 5 μg/m3). Nonmovers…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Environmental health hazards and wildland firefighting: a qualitative analysis
Year: 2026
BackgroundDespite growing attention to wildland firefighter safety, little is known about the full scope of environmental health hazards experienced occupationally. Previous research has documented exposures to carcinogens and combustion byproducts from smoke, dust, ash, engine exhaust, ignition devices, and location-specific chemical and radiological hazards. With growing attention to firefighters’ health outcomes, more research is needed on the environmental health hazards that they experience routinely and non-routinely. Qualitative research is well suited for exploratory…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Innovation to support wildfire risk-based decision-making: examining the incident strategic alignment process
Year: 2025
BackgroundIn the face of increased complexity, the USDA Forest Service (Forest Service) is emphasizing the use of risk-based spatial analytics and expert coaching of fire managers through consistent processes and practices to inform safer, effective, and strategic decision-making during incident management. The Incident Strategic Alignment Process (ISAP) integrates collaborative dialogue with risk management assistance (RMA) and other spatial analytics to develop and deploy a consistent, science-based strategic planning model for incident management. An important challenge is…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Increasing Hydroclimatic Whiplash Can Amplify Wildfire Risk in a Warming Climate
Year: 2025
On January 7 and 8, 2025, a series of wind-driven wildfires occurred in Los Angeles County in Southern California. Two of these fires ignited in dense woody chaparral shrubland and immediately burned into adjacent populated areas–the Palisades Fire on the coastal slopes of the Santa Monica Mountains and the Eaton fire in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains. Both fires ultimately eclipsed the traditionally-defined “wildland-urban interface” boundaries by burning structure-to-structure as an urban conflagration. The scope of the devastation is staggering; at the time of writing, the…
Publication Type: Report
Farming and ranching through wildfire: Producers’ critical role in fire risk management and emergency response
Year: 2025
Wildfires increasingly threaten California’s agricultural sector, posing serious risks to farming, ranching, and food systems. We conducted a survey of 505 California farmers and ranchers affected by wildfires between 2017 and 2023. Main findings show that wildfires’ impacts on producers are extensive and range from mild to catastrophic, with both short and long-term repercussions, regardless of their exposure level. Producers play a central role in community emergency wildfire risk response and management by reducing fuel loads, creating defensible space, and leveraging their fire management…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Long-range PM2.5 pollution and health impacts from the 2023 Canadian wildfires
Year: 2025
Smoke from extreme wildfires in Canada adversely affected air quality in many regions in 20231,2. Here we use satellite observations, machine learning and a chemical transport model to quantify global and regional PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) exposure and human health impacts related to the 2023 Canadian wildfires. We find that the fires increased annual PM2.5 exposure worldwide by 0.17 μg m–3 (95% confidence interval, 0.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Spatiotemporal Synchrony of Climate and Fire Occurrence Across North American Forests (1750–1880)
Year: 2025
Aim: Increasing aridity has driven widespread synchronous fire occurrence in recent decades across North America. The lack of historical (pre-1880) fire records limits our ability to understand long-term continental fire-climate dynamics. The goal of this study is to use tree-ring reconstructions to determine the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns in historical climate and widespread fire occurrence in North American forests, and whether they are stable through time. This information will address a major knowledge gap required to inform projections of future fire.Location: North…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Causal analysis of fire regime drivers in California
Year: 2025
BackgroundUnderstanding the relative contribution of climate and human factors to wildfires is critical for managing risk across California’s diverse ecosystems, in the United States (US).AimsWe propose a model that distinguishes between proximate and ultimate drivers of fire regimes and apply it to a century of fire and climate data to assess regional variation in causal mechanisms.MethodsWe analyzed fire statistics (1910–2021) alongside climate and weather data, stratifying the state by 10 ecoregions.Key resultsNorthern…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Can ‘‘Fire Safe’’ Cigarettes (FSCs) Start Wildfires?
Year: 2025
Over the last 20 years, all states within the US have required all cigarettes sold to be ‘‘fire safe’’ or ‘‘fire standards compliant’’ meaning that they must pass ASTM standard E2187. Though these cigarettes are designed to self-extinguish, there have been recent studies suggesting that these ‘‘fire safe’’ cigarettes (FSCs) can still ignite mattresses and other furnishings, but there has been no guidance for fire investigators whether FSCs can ignite natural fuels, such as duff and needles, that can be the source of a wildland fire. This work sets out to investigate whether FSCs can indeed be…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Role of Forensic Anthropology in the Search and Recovery of Fatal Wildland Fire Victims
Year: 2025
The search and recovery process of fatal fire victims is one of the greatest challenges in forensic anthropology, especially in large-scale wildland fire disasters. Burned human remains can exhibit significant variation in their degree of preservation depending on the temperature of the fire, the length of exposure to the heat source, and intrinsic characteristics of the victim (e.g., body size, age, and bone density). Wildland fire victims typically exhibit characteristics of the final stages of burning (i.e., nearly complete to complete calcination). The search for burned human remains is…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildland Fire–Related Smoke PM2.5 and Cardiovascular Disease Emergency Department Visits in the Western United States
Year: 2025
BackgroundThe impact of short‐term exposure to fine particulate matter with a diameter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) due to wildland fire smoke on the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains unclear. We investigated the association between short‐term exposure to wildfire smoke PM2.5 and emergency department visits for acute CVD in the western United States from 2007 to 2018.MethodsWe analyzed 49 759 958 emergency department visits for primary or secondary diagnoses of atrial fibrillation (AF), acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and total CVD across 5…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The hidden variable: Impacts of human decision-making on prescribed fire outcomes
Year: 2025
This study investigates the key drivers influencing prescribed fire effects across 16 sites in northern and central California, with particular emphasis on how operational decisions by fire practitioners shape burn outcomes. Data from the California Prescribed Fire Monitoring Program revealed that prescribed fires reduced total fuel loads by an average of 60 %, with greater consumption of postfrontal smoldering fuels (coarse fuels, 65 %) compared to frontline spreading fuels (fine fuels, 49.0 %).Crown scorch height showed a strong relationship to crown base height (R2 =…
Fire Effects and Fire Ecology, Fuels and Fuel Treatments, Prescribed Burning, Restoration and Hazardous Fuel Reduction
Publication Type: Journal Article
High fire hazard Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) residences in California lack voluntary and mandated wildfire risk mitigation compliance in Home Ignition Zones
Year: 2025
Wildfire structure losses are increasing globally and particularly in California, USA. Losses can be mitigated in part by changes to the Home Ignition Zone (HIZ), including both home hardening and defensible space. In the United States, there are local, nation-wide, and industry-based home mitigation standards that are enforced or recommended. We explore the standards implementation (California code and two voluntary standards) at 176 participating residences in three Santa Cruz Mountains and two Sierra Nevada Mountains sites. Overall most residences had little compulsory or recommended…
Publication Type: Journal Article