Research Database
Displaying 1 - 20 of 21
Fire Intensity and spRead forecAst (FIRA): A Machine Learning Based Fire Spread Prediction Model for Air Quality Forecasting Application
Year: 2025
Fire activities introduce hazardous impacts on the environment and public health by emitting various chemical species into the atmosphere. Most operational air quality forecast (AQF) models estimate smoke emissions based on the latest available satellite fire products, which may not represent real-time fire behaviors without considering fire spread. Hence, a novel machine learning (ML) based fire spread forecast model, the Fire Intensity and spRead forecAst (FIRA), is developed for AQF model applications. FIRA aims to improve the performance of AQF models by providing realistic, dynamic fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires
Year: 2024
The 2023 Canadian forest fires have been extreme in scale and intensity with more than seven times the average annual area burned compared to the previous four decades. Here, we quantify the carbon emissions from these fires from May to September 2023 on the basis of inverse modelling of satellite carbon monoxide observations. We find that the magnitude of the carbon emissions is 647 TgC (570–727 TgC), comparable to the annual fossil fuel emissions of large nations, with only India, China and the USA releasing more carbon per year. We find that widespread hot–dry weather was a principal…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada
Year: 2024
In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Bacterial Emission Factors: A Foundation for the Terrestrial-Atmospheric Modeling of Bacteria Aerosolized by Wildland Fires
Year: 2024
Wildland fire is a major global driver in the exchange of aerosols between terrestrial environments and the atmosphere. This exchange is commonly quantified using emission factors or the mass of a pollutant emitted per mass of fuel burned. However, emission factors for microbes aerosolized by fire have yet to be determined. Using bacterial cell concentrations collected on unmanned aircraft systems over forest fires in Utah, USA, we determine bacterial emission factors (BEFs) for the first time. We estimate that 1.39 × 1010 and 7.68 × 1011 microbes are emitted for each Mg of biomass consumed…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics
Year: 2024
Climate change increases fire-favorable weather in forests, but fire trends are also affected by multiple other controlling factors that are difficult to untangle. We use machine learning to systematically group forest ecoregions into 12 global forest pyromes, with each showing distinct sensitivities to climatic, human, and vegetation controls. This delineation revealed that rapidly increasing forest fire emissions in extratropical pyromes, linked to climate change, offset declining emissions in tropical pyromes during 2001 to 2023. Annual emissions tripled in one extratropical pyrome due to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Application of the wildland fire emissions inventory system to estimate fire emissions on forest lands of the United States
Year: 2024
BackgroundForests are significant terrestrial biomes for carbon storage, and annual carbon accumulation of forest biomass contributes offsets affecting net greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The immediate loss of stored carbon through fire on forest lands reduces the annual offsets provided by forests. As such, the United States reporting includes annual estimates of direct fire emissions in conjunction with the overall forest stock and change estimates as a part of national greenhouse gas inventories within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Forest fire emissions…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Generating fuel consumption maps on prescribed fire experiments from airborne laser scanning
Year: 2024
Background. Characterisation of fuel consumption provides critical insights into fire behaviour, effects, and emissions. Stand-replacing prescribed fire experiments in central Utah offered an opportunity to generate consumption estimates in coordination with other research efforts. Aims. We sought to generate fuel consumption maps using pre- and post-fire airborne laser scanning (ALS) and ground measurements and to test the spatial transferability of the ALSderived fuel models. Methods. Using random forest (RF), we empirically modelled fuel load and estimated consumption from pre-…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Increasing co-occurrence of fine particulate matter and ground-level ozone extremes in the western United States
Year: 2022
Wildfires and meteorological conditions influence the co-occurrence of multiple harmful air pollutants including fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ground-level ozone. We examine the spatiotemporal characteristics of PM2.5/ ozone co-occurrences and associated population exposure in the western United States (US). The frequency, spatial extent, and temporal persistence of extreme PM2.5/ozone co-occurrences have increased significantly between 2001 and 2020, increasing annual population exposure to multiple harmful air pollutants by ~25 million person-days/year. Using a clustering methodology…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Tamm review: The effects of prescribed fire on wildfire regimes and impacts: A framework for comparison
Year: 2020
Prescribed fire can result in significant benefits to ecosystems and society. Examples include improved wildlifehabitat, enhanced biodiversity, reduced threat of destructive wildfire, and enhanced ecosystem resilience.Prescribed fire can also come with costs, such as reduced air quality and impacts to fire sensitive species. To planfor appropriate use of prescribed fire, managers need information on the tradeoffs between prescribed fire andwildfire regimes. In this study, we argue that information on tradeoffs should be presented at spatial andtemporal scales commensurate with the scales at…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Administrative and Judicial Review of NEPA Decisions: Risk Factors and Risk Minimizing Strategies for the Forest Service
Year: 2016
Changes in land use and management practices throughout the past century–in addition to drought and other stressors exacerbated by climate change–have degraded the nation’s forests and led to overgrowth and accumulation of hazardous fuels (GAO 2015). Because of these fuels, some forests now see high-severity fires that threaten communities as well as important natural and cultural resources. Restoring desired vegetation conditions, which can often be accomplished through mechanical thinning or prescribed burning, are central objectives of restoration and fuel reduction projects carried out by…
Publication Type: Report
Oregon's State Wood Energy Team: A Grant Program Review
Year: 2016
Oregon's State Wood Energy Team (SWET) is a state-level network supported by the United States Forest Service and led by Oregon Department of Forestry. The purpose of the SWET is to bring together experts in biomass energy to support the successful development and implemen-tation of wood energy systems and businesses. One of the Oregon SWET’S activities is a small grant program for project feasibility, engineering, and construction activities. Six grants were awarded in 2013-2015, totaling $204,700. Oregon State Uni-versity conducted an assessment of this program at the SWET’s request in…
Publication Type: Report
Drivers of Wildfire Suppression Costs: Literature Review and Annotated Bibliography
Year: 2015
Over the past century, wildland fire management has been core to the mission of federal land management agencies. In recent decades, however, federal spending on wildfire suppression has increased dramatically; suppression spending that on average accounted for less than 20 percent of the USFS’s discretionary funds prior to 2000 had grown to 43 percent of discretionary funds by 2008 (USDA 2009), and 51 percent in 2014 (USDA 2014). Rising suppression costs have created budgetary shortfalls and conflict as money “borrowed” from other budgets often cannot be paid back in full, and resources for…
Publication Type: Report
Tracking Progress: The Monitoring Process Used in Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Projects in the Pacific Northwest
Year: 2015
Several trends have emerged in recent years that affect the management of the National Forest System, particularly in the western U.S. One is the recognition of landscapes departed from a natural range of variation, especially with implications for wildfire management. Another trend is the economic decline in many rural communities of the western U.S., particularly those based on natural resource activities such as timber production. Finally, there is increasing acceptance of collaborative approaches to forest management. Collaborative approaches endeavor to increase mutual learning among…
Publication Type: Report
Social and economic monitoring for the Lakeview Stewardship Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Project
Year: 2015
The Fremont-Winema National Forest and the Lakeview Stewardship Group were awarded funding under the Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration (CFLR) Program in 2012 for the 662,289 acre Lakeview Stewardship Project. The CFLR Program, administered by the U.S. Forest Service, seeks to increase restoration activities to improve the ecological conditions of forested landscapes while contributing to the social and economic well-being of communities located around national forests.The outcomes from CFLR project activities are monitored both through a standardized reporting framework established…
Publication Type: Report
Community Experiences with Wildfires: Actions, Effectiveness, Impacts, and Trends
Year: 2015
Wildfire has become a growing threat for communities across the American West and a complex concern for agencies tasked with community protection. This task has grown more difficult due to the increasing inci-dence of large fires and the continued expansion of the wildland-urban interface (WUI), the area where human habitations and wildland fuels abut or in-termix. These trends have motivated both federal policies and community-level responses to protect communities, lives, and infrastructure....
Publication Type: Report
Stewarding Forests and Communities: Final Report of the Dry Forest Zone Project
Year: 2014
During the past two decades, land managers and community leaders in the West have adopted sustainable land management methods to make forests healthier, and to maintain profitable local businesses that are beneficial to their communities. However their efforts were often siloed and were not making a big enough impact to offset the vast threat of wildfire and the effects of climate change that are increasingly pressing the region. Nor were these singular efforts being presented to federal lawmakers or agencies that have the need and ability to implement policies to replicate these successes…
Publication Type: Report
Dry Forest Zone Maps
Year: 2014
The Dry Forest Zone (DFZ) is a five-year project to address common natural resource-based economic development challenges through increased networking and capacity building at a regional scale. Sustainable Northwest leads this project in partnership with Wallowa Resources in northeastern Oregon, the Watershed Research and Training Center in northern California, and the Ecosystem Workforce Program at the University of Oregon. The central components of the DFZ strategy are: 1) To build strong local nonprofit organizations and collaborative processes to achieve forest and economic resilience, 2…
Publication Type: Map
Forest Service Spending on Large Wildfires in the West
Year: 2012
The purpose of this report is to shed light on fire suppression spending as a starting point for understanding the economic impacts of large fires. In this paper, we examined Forest Service suppression spending during and after large wildfire events to explore: (1) what the Forest Service spends money on during and after a wildfire; (2) the kinds of entities and personnel that perform that work; and (3) where funds went.
Publication Type: Report
The Effect of Large Wildfires on Local Labor Markets
Year: 2012
Although fire managers, policymakers, and communities are benefiting from better understanding of suppression costs, property losses, and community impacts of large fires,4 no generalizable empirical research has quantified the specific effect of large wildfires on local employment and wages. As federal spending on wildfire suppression in the United States continues to grow,5 an understanding of the effects of wildfires on local economies will help natural resource managers, policymakers, and communities better anticipate and make management and policy decisions that support local economies.…
Publication Type: Report
Community-Based Natural Resource Management in Oregon: A Profile of Organizational Capacity
Year: 2012
Community-based organizations (CBOs) in Oregon are fostering natural resource management and economic development, particularly in public lands communities where the capacity of federal agencies, businesses, and others has dwindled. They have also become integral in reducing social conflict over land management and seeking community economic wellbeing. CBOs include non-governmental organizations and collaborative groups. These groups have broad missions that are grounded in local needs and integrate a number of priorities, but tend to have smaller staff and budgets than other groups such as…
Publication Type: Report