Research Database
Displaying 1 - 17 of 17
Development of Risk Matrices for Evaluating Climatic Change Responses of Forested Habitats
Year: 2012
We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate change. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or impact of that event. In the context of species habitats, the likelihood component is related to the potential changes in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges
Year: 2012
Projected effects of climate change on animal distributions primarily focus on consequences of temperature and largely ignore impacts of altered precipitation. While much evidence supports temperature-driven range shifts, there is substantial heterogeneity in species' responses that remains poorly understood. We resampled breeding ranges of birds across three elevational transects in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA, that were extensively surveyed in the early 20th century. Presence absence comparisons were made at 77 sites and occupancy models were used to separate significant range shifts…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Effects of Ungulate Herbivory on Aspen, Cottonwood, and Willow Development Under Forest Fuels Treatment Regimes
Year: 2012
Herbivory by domestic and wild ungulates can dramatically affect vegetation structure, composition and dynamics in nearly every terrestrial ecosystem of the world. These effects are of particular concern in forests of western North America, where intensive herbivory by native and domestic ungulates has the potential to substantially reduce or eliminate deciduous, highly palatable species of aspen (Populus tremuloides), cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa), and willow (Salix spp.). In turn, differential herbivory pressure may favor greater establishment of unpalatable conifers that serve as ladder…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Comparative Hazard Assessment for Protected Species in a Fire-Prone Landscape
Year: 2012
We conducted a comparative hazard assessment for 325,000 ha in a fire-prone area of southwest Oregon, USA. The landscape contains a variety of land ownerships, fire regimes, and management strategies. Our comparative hazard assessment evaluated the effects of two management strategies on crown fire potential and northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) conservation: (1) no action, and (2) active manipulation of hazardous fuels. Model simulations indicated that active management of sites with high fire hazard was more favorable to spotted owl conservation over the long term (75 years…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Identifying policy target groups with qualitative and quantitative methods: the case of wildfire risk on nonindustrial private forest lands
Year: 2012
This article identifies four types of nonindustrial private forest owners with different motivations for managing forestland in Oregon's fire-prone areas and different suitabilities for wildfire risk reduction policy approaches: “Commodity managers” (27% of owners, 40% of ownership area) are motivated to harvest and sell timber for income, to protect assets, and to perpetuate a family legacy of forestry. Policies that reinvigorate markets for small-diameter wood products could motivate these owners with markets that provide economic justification for reducing fuel. “Amenity managers” (21% of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Impediments to prescribed fire across agency, landscape and manager: an example from northern California
Year: 2012
Though the need for prescribed fire is widely recognised, its use remains subject to a range of operational and social constraints. Research has focussed on identifying these constraints, yet past efforts have focussed disproportionately on single agencies and geographic regions. We examined constraints on prescribed fire by surveying a wide variety of organisations (including six state and federal agencies and several tribes, non-governmental organisations and timber companies) in northern California, a fire-prone region of the western United States. Across the region, prescribed burning…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A physiological trait-based approach to predicting the responses of species to experimental climate warming
Year: 2012
Physiological tolerance of environmental conditions can influence species-level responses to climate change. Here, we used species-specific thermal tolerances to predict the community responses of ant species to experimental forest-floor warming at the northern and southern boundaries of temperate hardwood forests in eastern North America. We then compared the predictive ability of thermal tolerance vs. correlative species distribution models (SDMs) which are popular forecasting tools for modeling the effects of climate change. Thermal tolerances predicted the responses of 19 ant species to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Meta-analysis of avian and small-mammal response to fire severity and fire surrogate treatments in US fire-prone forests
Year: 2012
Management in fire-prone ecosystems relies widely upon application of prescribed fire and/or fire surrogate (e.g., forest thinning) treatments to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function. Recently, published literature examining wildlife response to fire and fire management has increased rapidly. However, none of this literature has been synthesized quantitatively, precluding assessment of consistent patterns of wildlife response among treatment types. Using meta-analysis, we examined the scientific literature on vertebrate demographic responses to burn severity (low/moderate, high), fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projected range shifting by montane mammals under climate change: implications for Cascadia's National Parks
Year: 2012
We examined potential impacts of climate change over the next century on eight mammal species of conservation concern in western Washington State, under four warming scenarios. Using two species distribution models, including a logistic regression-based model and the "maximum entropy" (MaxEnt) model, we predicted the location and extent of the potential current and future range of each species based on a suite of environmental and geographical variables. Both models projected significant losses in range size within the focal area over the next century across all warming scenarios. Projections…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Decline of an Endangered Amphibian During an Extreme Climatic Event
Year: 2012
Climate change is a poorly understood, emerging threat to many amphibian species. One of the ways climate change is likely to affect amphibians is through increased recruitment failure associated with more frequent climatic extremes. To understand the risk posed by this threat, we combined 13 years of annual monitoring and multi-scaled habitat modelling at the site (n = 60), pool (n = 105) and nest (n = 170) levels to investigate the decline of the endangered northern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne pengilleyi), during the most severe drought on record in southern Australia. We documented the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
2012 National Prescribed Fire Use Survey Report
Year: 2012
Science demonstrates that low-intensity surface fires were historically a critical ecological process in as much as 60% of North American landscapes. When applied appropriately in fire-dependent ecosystems, prescribed fire maintains forest health and function, provides habitat for wildlife populations, enhances soil and water conservation, and promotes public health and safety. Prescribed fire is also often required silviculturally to develop, maintain, and protect commercial timber stands. However, its necessary use is often misunderstood, if not unknown, by the public. Societal attitudes…
Publication Type: Report
Climate Change in Grasslands, Shrublands, and Deserts of the Interior American West: A Review and Needs Assessment
Year: 2012
Recent research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the western interior of the United States in response to climate change. This volume reviews existing climate models that predict species and vegetation changes in the western United States, and it synthesizes knowledge about climate change impacts on the native fauna and flora of grasslands, shrublands and deserts of the interior American West. Species' responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment…
Publication Type: Report
Photo Series for Quantifying Natural Fuels Volume XI : Eastern Oregon Sagebrush - Steppe and Spotted Owl Nesting Habitat in the Pacific Northwest
Year: 2012
Three series of photographs display a range of natural conditions and fuel loadings for sagebrush-steppe types that are ecotonal with grasses, western juniper, and ponderosa pine in eastern Oregon, and one series of photographs displays a range of natural conditions and fuel loadings for northern spotted owl nesting habitat in forest types in Washington and Oregon. Each group of photos includes inventory information summarizing vegetation composition, structure, and loading; woody material loading and density by size class; forest floor depth and loading; and various site characteristics. The…
Publication Type: Report
Research Perspectives on the Public and Fire Management: A Synthesis of Current Social Science on Eight Essential Questions
Year: 2012
As part of a Joint Fire Science Program project, a team of social scientists reviewed existing fire social science literature to develop a targeted synthesis of scientific knowledge on the following questions: 1. What is the public’s understanding of fire’s role in the ecosystem? 2. Who are trusted sources of information about fire? 3. What are the public’s views of fuels reduction methods, and how do those views vary depending on citizens’ location in the wildland-urban interface or elsewhere? 4. What is the public’s understanding of smoke effects on human health, and what shapes the public’…
Publication Type: Report
The Effect of Large Wildfires on Local Labor Markets
Year: 2012
Although fire managers, policymakers, and communities are benefiting from better understanding of suppression costs, property losses, and community impacts of large fires, no generalizable empirical research has quantified the specific effect of large wildfires on local employment and wages. As federal spending on wildfire suppression in the United States continues to grow, an understanding of the effects of wildfires on local economies will help natural resource managers, policymakers, and communities better anticipate and make management and policy decisions that support local economies.…
Publication Type: Report
Forest Service Spending on Large Wildfires in the West
Year: 2012
The purpose of this report is to shed light on fire suppression spending as a starting point for understanding the economic impacts of large fires. In this paper, we examined Forest Service suppression spending during and after large wildfire events to explore: (1) what the Forest Service spends money on during and after a wildfire; (2) the kinds of entities and personnel that perform that work; and (3) where funds went.
Publication Type: Report
Risk and cooperation: managing hazardous fuel in mixed ownership landscapes
Year: 2012
Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and…
Restoration and Hazardous Fuel Reduction, Risk Assessment and Analysis, Social and Community Impacts of Fire
Publication Type: Journal Article