Research Database
Displaying 181 - 200 of 206
Eco-Evolutionary Responses of Biodiversity to Climate Change
Year: 2012
Climate change is predicted to alter global species diversity, the distribution of human pathogens and ecosystem services. Forecasting these changes and designing adequate management of future ecosystem services will require predictive models encompassing the most fundamental biotic responses. However, most present models omit important processes such as evolution and competition. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A Comprehensive Guide to Fuel Management Practices for Dry Mixed Conifer Forests in the Northwestern United States
Year: 2012
This guide describes the benefits, opportunities, and trade-offs concerning fuel treatments in the dry mixed conifer forests of northern California and the Klamath Mountains, Pacific Northwest Interior, northern and central Rocky Mountains, and Utah. Multiple interacting disturbances and diverse physical settings have created a forest mosaic with historically low- to mixed-severity fire regimes. Analysis of forest inventory data found nearly 80 percent of these forests rate hazardous by at least one measure and 20 to 30 percent rate hazardous by multiple measures. Modeled mechanical…
Publication Type: Report
Pattern and process of prescribed fires influence effectiveness at reducing wildfire severity in dry coniferous forests
Year: 2012
We examined the effects of three early season (spring) prescribed fires on burn severity patterns of summer wildfires that occurred 1–3 years post- treatment in a mixed conifer forest in central Idaho. Wildfire and prescribed fire burn severities were estimated as the difference in normalized burn ratio (dNBR) using Landsat imagery. We used GIS derived vegetation, topography, and treatment variables to generate models predicting the wildfire burn severity of 1286–5500 30- m pixels within and around treated areas. We found that wildfire severity was significantly lower in treated areas than in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Afternoon Rain More Likely Over Drier Soils
Year: 2012
Land surface properties, such as vegetation cover and soil moisture, influence the partitioning of radiative energy between latent and sensible heat fluxes in daytime hours. During dry periods, soil-water deficit can limit evapotranspiration, leading to warmer and drier conditions in the lower atmosphere. Soil moisture can influence the development of convective storms through such modifications of low-level atmospheric temperature and humidity, which in turn feeds back on soil moisture. Yet there is considerable uncertainty in how soil moisture affects convective storms across the world,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fuels and Fire Behavior Dynamics in Bark Beetle-Attacked Forests in Western North America and Implications for Fire Management
Year: 2012
Declining forest health attributed to associations between extensive bark beetle-caused tree mortality, accumulations of hazardous fuels, wildfire, and climate change have catalyzed changes in forest health and wildfire protection policies of land management agencies. These changes subsequently prompted research to investigate the extent to which bark beetle-altered fuel complexes affect fire behavior. Although not yet rigorously quantified, the results of the investigations, in addition to a growing body of operational experience and research, indicates that predictable changes in surface,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate Change in Grasslands, Shrublands, and Deserts of the Interior American West: A Review and Needs Assessment
Year: 2012
Recent research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the western interior of the United States in response to climate change. This volume reviews existing climate models that predict species and vegetation changes in the western United States, and it synthesizes knowledge about climate change impacts on the native fauna and flora of grasslands, shrublands and deserts of the interior American West. Species' responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment…
Publication Type: Report
Spatio-temporal prediction of site index based on forest inventories and climate change scenarios
Year: 2012
A methodological framework is provided for the quantification of climate change effects on site index. Spatio-temporal predictions of site index are derived for six major tree species in the German state of Baden-Württemberg using simplified universal kriging (UK) based on large data sets from forest inventories and a climate sensitive site-index model. It is shown by a simulation study that, with the underlying large sample size, residual kriging using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the mean function leads to an approximately unbiased spatial predictor. Moreover, the simulated…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions
Year: 2012
Conservation science strives to inform management decisions. Applying niche models in concert with future climate projections to project species vulnerability to extinction, range size loss, or distribution shifts has emerged as a potentially useful tool for informing resource management decisions. Making climate change niche modeling useful to conservation decisions requires centering studies on the types of decisions that are made regarding the focal taxa of a niche model study. Recent recommendations for climate adaptation strategies suggest four types of decision makers: policy, habitat…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fourmile Canyon Fire Findings
Year: 2012
The Fourmile Canyon Fire burned in the fall of 2010 in the Rocky Mountain Front Range adjacent to Boulder, Colorado. The fire occurred in steep, rugged terrain, primarily on privately owned mixed ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir forests. The fire started on September 6 when the humidity of the air was very dry (≈ <7%) and the winds were steadily blowing in the range of 15 miles per hour and gusting to over 40 miles per hour. These conditions prevailed for most of the first day when the fire burned approximately 5,700 acres and destroyed 162 homes. Because of the windy conditions, aircraft…
Publication Type: Report
Climate Change and Disruptions to Global Fire Activity
Year: 2012
Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.58 resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Building a Citizen-Agency Partnership Among Diverse Interests: The Colville National Forest and Northeast Washington Forestry Coalition Experience
Year: 2012
Concerns about forest health and the threat of wildfire across the Western United States increasingly provide the impetus for communities to find land management solutions that serve multiple interests. Funding and procedural changes over the past decade have positioned federal agencies to put greater emphasis on multistakeholder partnerships and public outreach efforts. Partnerships build slowly over time, but can result in a healthier resource, reduced fire risk, greater stability for agency planning processes, and more resilient communities. Drawing on interviews with stakeholders…
Publication Type: Report
Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Year: 2011
In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Simulating fuel treatment effects in dry forests of the western United States: testing the principles of a fire-safe forest
Year: 2011
We used the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS) to simulate fuel treatment effects on 45 1 62 stands in low- to midelevation dry forests (e.g., ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Doug!. ex. P. & C. Laws.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) of the western United States. We evaluated treatment effects on predicted post-treatment fire behavior (fire type) and fire hazard (torching index). FFE-FVS predicts that thinning and surface fuel treatments reduced crown fire behavior relative to no treatment; a large proportion of stands were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Reducing hazardous fuels on nonindustrial private forests: factors influencing landowner decisions
Year: 2011
In mixed-ownership landscapes, fuels conditions on private lands have implications for fire risk on public lands and vice versa. The success of efforts to mitigate fire risk depends on the extent, efficacy, and coordination of treatments on nearby ownerships. Understanding factors in forest owners’ decisions to address the risk of wildland fire is therefore important. This research uses logistic regression to analyze mail survey data and identify factors in forest owners’ decisions to reduce hazardous fuels in the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) ecosystem on the east side of Oregon. Results…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Northwest Forest Plan -- The First 15 Years: Status and Trends of Northern Spotted Owl Populations and Habitats
Year: 2011
This is the second in a series of periodic monitoring reports on northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) population and habitat trends on federally administered lands since implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994.Here we summarize results from a population analysis that included data from long-term demographic studies during 1985–2008. This data was analyzed separately by study area, and also in a meta-analysis across all study areas to assess temporal and spatial patterns in fecundity, apparent survival, recruitment, and annual rates of population change. Estimated…
Publication Type: Report
Evaluating Soil Risks Associated With Severe Wildfire and Ground-Based Logging
Year: 2011
Rehabilitation and timber-salvage activities after wildfire require rapid planning and rational decisions. Identifying areas with high risk for erosion and soil productivity losses is important. Moreover, allocation of corrective and mitigative efforts must be rational and prioritized. Our logic-based analysis of forested soil polygons on the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest was designed and implemented with the Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system to evaluate risks to soil properties and productivity associated with moderate to severe wildfire and unmitigated use of ground-…
Publication Type: Report
Introducing FuelCalc: A New Tool that Helps Turn Static Inventory Data into Actionable Information
Year: 2010
Fuel and fire managers perform fuel treatments to manage and restore ecosystems and protect resources. In order to plan effective fuel treatments that accomplish objectives, managers need to analyze fuel conditions and document the expected fire behavior and fire effects both before and after fuel treatment. To help accomplish these goals, a new software tool named FuelCalc was created. FuelCalc facilitates use of a wide range of inventory data and fuel characteristics to help calculate fuel quantities and qualities to estimate potential fire behavior, fire effects, and smoke production. By…
Publication Type: Report
Wildfire Risk Management on a Landscape with Public and Private Ownership: Who Pays for Protection?
Year: 2010
Wildfire, like many natural hazards, affects large landscapes with many landowners and the risk individual owners face depends on both individual and collective protective actions. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit game theoretic model to examine the strategic interaction between landowners’ hazard mitigation decisions on a landscape with public and private ownership. We find that in areas where ownership is mixed, the private landowner performs too little fuel treatment as they ‘‘free ride’’—capture benefits without incurring the costs—on public protection, while areas with…
Publication Type: Journal Article
FOFEM: The First-Order Fire Effects Model Adapts to the 21st Century
Year: 2009
Technology is playing an increasingly pivotal role in the efficiency and effectiveness of fire management. The First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) is a widely used computer application that predicts the immediate or ‘first-order’ effects of fire: fuel consumption, tree mortality, emissions, and soil heating. FOFEM’s simple operation and comprehensive features have made it a workhorse for fire and resource professionals who need to be able to predict, assess and plan for fire’s effects. Over the last decade FOFEM has undergone several upgrades as developers continue to improve function and…
Publication Type: Report
Assessing fuel treatment effectiveness using satellite imagery and spatial statistics
Year: 2009
Understanding the influences of forest management practices on wildfire severity is critical in fire-prone ecosystems of the western United States. Newly available geospatial data sets characterizing vegetation, fuels, topography, and burn severity offer new opportunities for studying fuel treatment effectiveness at regional to national scales. In this study, we used ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression and sequential autoregression (SAR) to analyze fuel treatment effects on burn severity for three recent wildfires: the Camp 32 fire in western Montana, the School fire in southeastern…
Publication Type: Journal Article