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Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the Western United States
Year: 2016
Fire danger and potential for large fires in the United States (US) is currently indicated via several forecasted qualitative indices. However, landscape-level quantitative forecasts of the probability of a large fire are currently lacking. In this study, we present a framework for forecasting large fire occurrence – an extreme value event – and evaluating measures of uncertainties that do not rely on distributional assumptions. The statistical model presented here incorporates qualitative fire danger indices along with other location and seasonal specific explanatory variables to produce…
7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook, Energy Release Component, extreme value, fire probability, forecasting significant fires
Publication Type: Journal Article