Research Database
Displaying 141 - 160 of 197
Climate Change and Fire in the Southwest
Year: 2015
Global climate change will lead to shis in climate patterns and re regimes in the Southwest over the coming decades. e intent of this working paper is to summarize the current state of scientic knowledge about climate change predictions in the Southwest as well as the pathways by which re might be aected. While the paper is focused on the Southwest, in particular Arizona and New Mexico, some of the material cited covers a broader area.
Publication Type: Report
2014 Quadrennial Fire Review Final Report
Year: 2015
The Quadrennial Fire Review (QFR) is a strategic assessmentprocess conducted every four years to evaluate currentwildland fire management community strategies andcapabilities against best estimates of the future environment.This report is the third iteration of the QFR, which beganin 2005. It is not a formal policy or decision document,but rather a strategic evaluation of the long-range directionof wildland fire management. It looks far into the future toexplore potential risks, challenges, and opportunities thatmay affect our ability to meet our mission. Moreover, it willinform our strategic…
Publication Type: Report
Wildland fire management: insights from a foresight panel
Year: 2015
Wildland fire management faces unprecedented challenges in the 21st century: the increasingly apparent effects of climate change, more people and structures in the wildland-urban interface, growing costs associated with wildfire management, and the rise of high-impact fires, to name a few. Given these significant and growing challenges, conventional fire management approaches are unlikely to be effective in the future. Innovative and forward-looking approaches are needed. This study explored wildland fire management futures by using methods and diverse perspectives from futures research. To…
Publication Type: Report
Put the wet stuff on the hot stuff': The legacy and drivers of conflict surrounding wildfire suppression
Year: 2015
Existing research demonstrates that wildfire events can lead to conflict among local residents and outside professionals involved in wildfire management or suppression. What has been missing in thewildfire literature is a more explicit understanding of the social dynamics that influence such conflict in rural or agricultural communities and their long-term legacy for future wildfire management. Authorsconducted interviews with local residents of a southeastern Washington community in 2012 to better understand conflict surrounding management of the 2006 Columbia Complex Fire. We utilize…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The economic benefit of localised, short-term, wildfire-potential information
Year: 2015
Wildfire-potential information products are designed to support decisions for prefire staging of movable wildfire suppression resources across geographic locations. We quantify the economic value of these information products by defining their value as the difference between two cases of expected fire-suppression expenditures: one in which daily information about spatial variation in wildfire-potential is used to move fire suppression resources throughout the season, and the other case in which daily information is not used and fire-suppression resources are staged in their home locations all…
Publication Type: Journal Article
An Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy
Year: 2015
An Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy (the Strategy) is intended to improve the efficiency and efficacy of actions to address rangeland fire, to better prevent and suppress rangeland fire, and improve efforts to restore fire-impacted landscapes. These activities involve targeted investments to enhance efforts to manage rangeland fire in specific portions of the Great Basin region, consistent with efforts of tribal, state, and other lands, and in keeping with the trust responsibilities to Indian tribes and other statutory obligations.
Publication Type: Report
The cost of climate change: Ecosystem services and wildland fires
Year: 2015
Little research has focused on the economic impact associated with climate-change induced wildland fire on natural ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. We examine changes in wildland fire patterns based on the U.S. Forest Service's MC1 dynamic global vegetation model from 2013 to 2115 under two pre-defined scenarios: a reference (i.e., business-as-usual) and a greenhouse gas mitigation policy scenario. We construct a habitat equivalency model under which fuels management activities, actions commonly undertaken to reduce the frequency and/or severity of wildland fire, are used…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984-2012
Year: 2015
Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a "fire deficit" or "fire surplus", respectively. In this study, we developed a model of expected area burned for the western US as a function of climate from 1984 to 2012. We then quantified departures from expected area burned to identify geographic regions with fire deficit or surplus. We developed our model of area burned as a…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Principles of effective USA Federal Fire Management Plans
Year: 2015
Federal fire management plans are essential implementation guides for the management of wildland fire on federal lands. Recent changes in federal fire policy implementation guidance and fire science information suggest the need for substantial changes in federal fire management plans of the United States. Federal land management agencies are also undergoing land management planning efforts that will initiate revision of fire management plans across the country. Using the southern Sierra Nevada as a case study, we briefly describe the underlying framework of fire management plans, assess their…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Modeling Regional-Scale Wildland Fire Emissions with the Wildland Fire Emissions Information System
Year: 2014
As carbon modeling tools become more comprehensive, spatial data are needed to improve quantitative maps of carbon emissions from fire.The Wildland Fire Emissions Information System (WFEIS) provides mapped estimates of carbon emissions from historical forest fires in the United States through a web browser. WFEIS improves access to data and provides a consistent approach to estimating emissions at landscape, regional, and continental scales. The system taps into data and tools developed by the U.S. Forest Serviceto describe fuels, fuel loadings, and fuel consumption and merges information…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Modeling fuel consumption
Year: 2014
Fuel consumption specifies the amount of vegetative biomass consumed during wildland fire. It is a two-stage process of pyrolysis and combustion that occurs simultaneously and at different rates depending on the characteristics and condition of the fuel, weather, topography, and in the case of prescribed fire, ignition rate and pattern. Fuel consumption is the basic process that leads to heat absorbing emissions called greenhouse gas and other aerosol emissions that can impact atmospheric and ecosystem processes, carbon stocks, and land surface reflectance. It is a critical requirement for…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildland firefighter safety zones: a review of past science and summary of future needs
Year: 2014
Current wildland firefighter safety zone guidelines are based on studies that assume flat terrain, radiant heating, finite flame width, constant flame temperature and high flame emissivity. Firefighter entrapments and injuries occur across a broad range of vegetation, terrain and atmospheric conditions generally when they are within two flame heights of the fire. Injury is not confined to radiant heating or flat terrain; consequently, convective heating should be considered as a potential heating mode. Current understanding of energy transport in wildland fires is briefly summarised, followed…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The role of defensible space for residential structure protection during wildfires
Year: 2014
With the potential for worsening fire conditions, discussion is escalating over how to best reduce effects on urban communities. A widely supported strategy is the creation of defensible space immediately surrounding homes and other structures. Although state and local governments publish specific guidelines and requirements, there is little empirical evidence to suggest how much vegetation modification is needed to provide significant benefits. We analysed the role of defensible space by mapping and measuring a suite of variables on modern pre-fire aerial photography for 1000 destroyed and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
State of Fire
Year: 2014
Describing the 2013 summer fire season, the Oregon Department of Forestry called it “epic.” On those lands protected by the state, it was the costliest ever, and the first time in over 60 years that more than 100,000 acres burned. Oregon’s forests are changing. The management objectives and priorities of federal and private landowners are evolving. Drought has afflicted parts of the state, and climate trends are making fire seasons longer and more intense. And in the wildland-urban interface, more homes have been built in the path of wildfire. The ways Oregonians prevent, fight, manage and,…
Publication Type: Report
Briefing: Climate and Wildfire in Western U.S. Forests
Year: 2014
Wildfire in western U.S. federally managed forests has increased substantially in recent decades, with large (>1000 acre) fires in the decade through 2012 over five times as frequent (450 percent increase) and burned area over ten times as great (930 percent increase) as the 1970s and early 1980s. These changes are closely linked to increased temperatures and a greater frequency and intensity of drought. Projected additional future warming implies that wildfire activity may continue to increase in western forests. However, the interaction of changes in climate, fire and other disturbances…
Publication Type: Conference Proceedings
Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal insights for predicting forest fire area in the southwest United States
Year: 2014
We related measurements of annual burned area in the southwest United States during 1984–2013 to records of climate variability. Within forests, annual burned area correlated at least as strongly with spring–summer vapour pressure deficit (VPD) as with 14 other drought-related metrics, including more complex metrics that explicitly represent fuel moisture. Particularly strong correlations with VPD arise partly because this term dictates the atmospheric moisture demand. Additionally, VPD responds to moisture supply, which is difficult to measure and model regionally due to complex…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A synthesis of post-fire Burned Area Reports from 1972 to 2009 for western US Forest Service lands: trends in wildfire characteristics and post-fire stabilisation treatments and expenditures
Year: 2014
Over 1200 post-fire assessment and treatment implementation reports from four decades (1970s–2000s) of western US forest fires have been examined to identify decadal patterns in fire characteristics and the justifications and expenditures for the post-fire treatments. The main trends found were: (1) the area burned by wildfire increased over time and the rate of increase accelerated after 1990; (2) the proportions of burned area assessed as low, moderate and high burn severity likely have remained fairly constant over time, but the use of satellite imagery that began c. 2000 increased the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Mathematical model and sensor development for measuring energy transfer from wildland fires
Year: 2014
Current practices for measuring high heat flux in scenarios such as wildland forest fires use expensive, thermopile-based sensors, coupled with mathematical models based on a semi-infinite-length scale. Although these sensors are acceptable for experimental testing in laboratories, high error rates or the need for water cooling limits their applications in field experiments. Therefore, a one-dimensional, finite-length scale, transient-heat conduction model was developed and combined with an inexpensive, thermocouple-based rectangular sensor, to create a rapidly deployable, non-cooled sensor…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Ecology and Management of Moist Mixed-Conifer Forests in Eastern Oregon and Washington: a Synthesis of the Relevant Biophysical Science and Implications for Future Land Management
Year: 2014
Land managers in the Pacific Northwest have reported a need for updated scientific information on the ecology and management of mixed-conifer forests east of the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington. Of particular concern are the moist mixed-conifer forests, which have become drought-stressed and vulnerable to high-severity fire after decades of human disturbances and climate warming. This synthesis responds to this need. We present a compilation of existing research across multiple natural resource issues, including disturbance regimes, the legacy effects of past management actions,…
Publication Type: Report
Severity of an uncharacteristically large wildfire, the Rim Fire, in forests with relatively restored frequent fire regimes
Year: 2014
The 2013 Rim Fire, originating on Forest Service land, burned into old-growth forests within Yosemite National Park with relatively restored frequent-fire regimes (¡Ý2 predominantly low and moderate severity burns within the last 35 years). Forest structure and fuels data were collected in the field 3-4 years before the fire, providing a rare chance to use pre-existing plot data to analyze fire effects. We used regression tree and random forests analysis to examine the influence of forest structure, fuel, fire history, topographic and weather conditions on observed fire severity in the Rim…
Publication Type: Journal Article