Research Database
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Communication of the Role of Natural Variability in Future North American Climate
Year: 2012
As climate models improve, decision-makers' expectations for accurate climate predictions are growing. Natural climate variability, however, poses inherent limits to climate predictability and the related goal of adaptation guidance in many places, as illustrated here for North America. Other locations with low natural variability show a more predictable future in which anthropogenic forcing can be more readily identified, even on small scales. We call for a more focused dialogue between scientists, policymakers and the public to improve communication and avoid raising expectations for…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Shrub Seed Banks in Mixed Conifer Forests of Northern California and the Role of Fire in Regulating Abundance
Year: 2012
Understory shrubs play important ecological roles in forests of the western US, but they can also impede early tree growth and lead to fire hazard concerns when very dense. Some of the more common genera (Ceanothus, Arctostaphylos, and Prunus) persist for long periods in the seed bank, even in areas where plants have been shaded out. To determine shrub seed density and investigate the feasibility of managing shrub abundance by regulating the size of the soil seed bank with fire, we sampled the seed bank in 24 mixed conifer forest stands throughout northern California. Twenty stands were…
Publication Type: Journal Article