Research Database
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Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance
Year: 2015
Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Does wildfire likelihood increase following insect outbreaks in conifer forests?
Year: 2015
Although there is acute concern that insect-caused tree mortality increases the likelihood or severity of subsequent wildfire, previous studies have been mixed, with findings typically based on stand-scale simulations or individual events. This study investigates landscape- and regional-scale wildfire likelihood following outbreaks of the two most prevalent native insect pests in the US Pacific Northwest (PNW): mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) and western spruce budworm (WSB; Choristoneura freemani). We leverage seamless census data across numerous insect and fire events to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Models predict longer, deeper U.S. droughts
Year: 2015
Severe, decades-long "megadroughts" that hit the southwestern and midwestern United States over the past millennium may be just a preview of droughts to come in the next century as a result of climate change, new research suggests. According to a new analysis of 17 state-of-the-art climate models and reconstructions of historical drought based on 1000 years of tree-ring data, the regions are heading into a period of unprecedented dryness even if CO2 emissions are dramatically reduced. Under a "business-as-usual" emission scenario, there's an 80% likelihood that at least one decades-long…
Publication Type: Journal Article