Research Database
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Gazing into the flames: A guide to assessing the impacts of climate change on landscape fire
Year: 2026
Widespread impacts of landscape fire on ecosystems, societies, and the climate system itself have heightened the need to understand the potential future trajectory of fire under continued climate change. However, the complexity of fire makes climate change impact assessment challenging. The climate system influences fire in many ways, including through vegetation, fuel dryness, fire weather, and ignition. Furthermore, fire’s impacts are highly diverse, spanning threats to human and ecological values and beneficial ecosystem and cultural services. Here, we discuss the art and science of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projections of Lightning-Ignited Wildfire Risk in the Western United States
Year: 2025
Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is a major source of summer wildfire ignition in the western United States (WUS). However, future projections of lightning are uncertain since lightning is not directly simulated by most global climate models. To address this issue, we use convolutional neural network (CNN)-based parameterizations of daily June-September CG lightning. CNN parameterizations of daily CG lightning occurrence at each grid cell use fields of three thermodynamic variables—ratio of surface Moist Static Energy (MSE) to 500 hPa saturation MSE, 700–500 hPa lapse rate, and 500…
Publication Type: Journal Article