Research Database
Displaying 101 - 120 of 122
Closing the feedback loop: evaluation and adaptation in collaborative resource management
Year: 2013
This sourcebook provides answers from the field— strategies and tools that some collaborative resource management groups have used to systematically evaluate their work and adapt plans and management actions based on what they have learned. The examples described in this document are drawn from rapid assessments of nine collaborative resource management groups and informed by organizational and social learning, evaluation, and adaptive management concepts.
Publication Type: Report
Wildland firefighter entrapment avoidance: modelling evacuation triggers
Year: 2013
Wildland firefighters are often called on to make tactical decisions under stressful conditions in order to suppress a fire. These decisions can be hindered by human factors such as insufficient knowledge of surroundings and conditions, lack of experience, overextension of resources or loss of situational awareness. One potential tool for assisting fire managers in situations where human factors can hinder decision-making is the Wildland–Urban Interface Evacuation (WUIVAC) model, which models fire minimum travel times to create geographic trigger buffers for evacuation recommendations.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Lessons Learned from Waldo Canyon: FAC mitigation assessment team report
Year: 2013
The Waldo Canyon fire presented the first opportunity for partners in the national Fire Adapted Communities (FAC) Coalition to collectively assess the performance of mitigation practices in Colorado Springs in a post-fire environment and to compare the results to the mitigation strategy recommended by the Fire Adapted Communities program. The assessment was conducted from July 18-20, 2012, by a FAC Wildfire Mitigation Assessment Team, which included two sets of researchers: structural assessment and forestry experts and social science and public education experts, accompanied by staff from…
Publication Type: Report
Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future suppression costs
Year: 2013
Where a legacy of aggressive wildland fire suppression has left forests in need of fuel reduction, allowing wildland fire to burn may provide fuel treatment benefits, thereby reducing suppression costs from subsequent fires. The least-cost-plus-net-value-change model of wildland fire economics includes benefits of wildfire in a framework for evaluating suppression options. In this study, we estimated one component of that benefit – the expected present value of the reduction in suppression costs for subsequent fires arising from the fuel treatment effect of a current fire. To that end, we…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Making monitoring count: project design for active adaptive management
Year: 2013
Ongoing environmental change requires that managers develop strategies capable of achieving multiple objectives in an uncertain future. Active adaptive management (AAM) offers a robust approach to reducing uncertainty while also considering diverse stakeholder perspectives. Important features of AAM include recognition of learning as a management objective, integration of monitoring throughout all aspects of project design and implementation, and use of experimental design in project planning. These features facilitate collaborator engagement and adaptive management based on credible…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Ecosystem Greenspots: Identifying Potential Drought, Fire, and Climate-Change Micro-Refuges
Year: 2012
In response to climate change and other threatening processes there is renewed interest in the role of refugia and refuges. In bioregions that experience drought and fire, micro-refuges can play a vital role in ensuring the persistence of species. We develop and apply an approach to identifying potential micro-refuges based on a time series of remotely sensed vegetation greenness (fraction of photosynthetically active radiation intercepted by the sunlit canopy; fPAR). The primary data for this analysis were NASA MODIS 16-day L3 Global 250 m (MOD13Q1) satellite imagery. This method draws upon…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions
Year: 2012
Conservation science strives to inform management decisions. Applying niche models in concert with future climate projections to project species vulnerability to extinction, range size loss, or distribution shifts has emerged as a potentially useful tool for informing resource management decisions. Making climate change niche modeling useful to conservation decisions requires centering studies on the types of decisions that are made regarding the focal taxa of a niche model study. Recent recommendations for climate adaptation strategies suggest four types of decision makers: policy, habitat…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Living with Wildfire: The State of Practice in Western Communities
Year: 2012
On the order of Congress, the federal land and fire management agencies are collaboratively developing a “National Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy” (Cohesive Strategy). In order to integrate the experience and insights of community stakeholders working on fire management issues in the west, leaders responsible for the Western Region Cohesive Strategy needed a strong understanding of current trends, needs and opportunities. This assessment was designed to provide that information and is intended to inform strategies, policies and programs emerging through the Cohesive Strategy and in…
Publication Type: Report
Climate Change in Grasslands, Shrublands, and Deserts of the Interior American West: A Review and Needs Assessment
Year: 2012
Recent research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the western interior of the United States in response to climate change. This volume reviews existing climate models that predict species and vegetation changes in the western United States, and it synthesizes knowledge about climate change impacts on the native fauna and flora of grasslands, shrublands and deserts of the interior American West. Species' responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment…
Publication Type: Report
Development of Risk Matrices for Evaluating Climatic Change Responses of Forested Habitats
Year: 2012
We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate change. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or impact of that event. In the context of species habitats, the likelihood component is related to the potential changes in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Placing Forestry in the Assisted Migration Debate
Year: 2012
Assisted migration (AM) is often presented as a strategy to save species that are imminently threatened by rapid climate change. This conception of AM, which has generated considerable controversy, typically proposes the movement of narrowly distributed, threatened species to suitable sites beyond their current range limits. However, existing North American forestry operations present an opportunity to practice AM on a larger scale, across millions of hectares, with a focus on moving populations of widely distributed, nonthreatened tree species within their current range limits. Despite these…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications
Year: 2012
Projecting future distributions of ecosystems or species climate niches has widely been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change. However, variability in such projections for the future periods, particularly the variability arising from uncertain future climates, remains a critical challenge for incorporating these projections into climate change adaptation strategies. We combined the use of a robust statistical modeling technique with a simple consensus approach consolidating projected outcomes for multiple climate change scenarios, and exemplify how the results could guide…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Is Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change Necessary in Grazed Rangelands?
Year: 2012
In this article we test the notion that adaptation to climate change in grazed rangelands requires little more effort than current approaches to risk management because the inherent climate variability that characterizes rangelands provides a management environment that is preadapted to climate change. We also examine the alternative hypothesis that rangeland ecosystems and the people they support are highly vulnerable to climate change. Past climate is likely to become an increasingly poor predictor of the future, so there is a risk in relying on adaptation approaches developed solely in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Building a Citizen-Agency Partnership Among Diverse Interests: The Colville National Forest and Northeast Washington Forestry Coalition Experience
Year: 2012
Concerns about forest health and the threat of wildfire across the Western United States increasingly provide the impetus for communities to find land management solutions that serve multiple interests. Funding and procedural changes over the past decade have positioned federal agencies to put greater emphasis on multistakeholder partnerships and public outreach efforts. Partnerships build slowly over time, but can result in a healthier resource, reduced fire risk, greater stability for agency planning processes, and more resilient communities. Drawing on interviews with stakeholders…
Publication Type: Report
Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Year: 2011
In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Responding to Climate Change in National Forests: A Guidebook for Developing Adaptation Options
Year: 2011
This guidebook contains science-based principles, processes, and tools necessary to assist with developing adaptation options for national forest lands. The adaptation process is based on partnerships between local resource managers and scientists who work collaboratively to understand potential climate change effects, identify important resource issues, and develop management options that can capitalize on new opportunities and reduce deleterious effects. Because management objectives and sensitivity of resources to climate change differ among national forests, appropriate processes and…
Publication Type: Report
Evaluating Soil Risks Associated With Severe Wildfire and Ground-Based Logging
Year: 2011
Rehabilitation and timber-salvage activities after wildfire require rapid planning and rational decisions. Identifying areas with high risk for erosion and soil productivity losses is important. Moreover, allocation of corrective and mitigative efforts must be rational and prioritized. Our logic-based analysis of forested soil polygons on the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest was designed and implemented with the Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system to evaluate risks to soil properties and productivity associated with moderate to severe wildfire and unmitigated use of ground-…
Publication Type: Report
Reducing hazardous fuels on nonindustrial private forests: factors influencing landowner decisions
Year: 2011
In mixed-ownership landscapes, fuels conditions on private lands have implications for fire risk on public lands and vice versa. The success of efforts to mitigate fire risk depends on the extent, efficacy, and coordination of treatments on nearby ownerships. Understanding factors in forest owners’ decisions to address the risk of wildland fire is therefore important. This research uses logistic regression to analyze mail survey data and identify factors in forest owners’ decisions to reduce hazardous fuels in the ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) ecosystem on the east side of Oregon. Results…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Introducing FuelCalc: A New Tool that Helps Turn Static Inventory Data into Actionable Information
Year: 2010
Fuel and fire managers perform fuel treatments to manage and restore ecosystems and protect resources. In order to plan effective fuel treatments that accomplish objectives, managers need to analyze fuel conditions and document the expected fire behavior and fire effects both before and after fuel treatment. To help accomplish these goals, a new software tool named FuelCalc was created. FuelCalc facilitates use of a wide range of inventory data and fuel characteristics to help calculate fuel quantities and qualities to estimate potential fire behavior, fire effects, and smoke production. By…
Publication Type: Report
Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA
Year: 2010
Climatic change is likely to affect Pacific Northwest (PNW) forests in several important ways. In this paper, we address the role of climate in four forest ecosystem processes and project the effects of future climatic change on these processes across Washington State. First, we relate Douglas-fir growth to climatic limitation and suggest that where Douglas-fir is currently water-limited, growth is likely to decline due to increased summer water deficit. Second, we use existing analyses of climatic controls on tree species biogeography to demonstrate that by the mid twenty-first century,…
Publication Type: Journal Article