In the fire-prone and fire-adapted landscape of the Rogue River Basin of southwestern Oregon, communities mobilize to prepare, respond, and recover from wildfire while modifying the current social and ecological system.
Previous research has examined individual factors contributing to wildfire risk, but the compounding effects of these factors remain underexplored. Here, we introduce the “Integrated Human-centric Wildfire Risk Index (IHWRI)” to quantify the compounding effects of fire-weather intensification and anthropogenic factors—including ignitions and human settlement into wildland—on wildfire risk.
Red flag warnings (RFWs) are issued to alert management and emergency response agencies of weather conditions that are conducive to extreme wildfire behavior. Issuance of RFWs also can encourage the public to exercise extreme caution with activities that could ignite a wildfire. Among the ignition causes associated with human activity, some generally reflect short-term behavioral decisions, whereas others are linked to infrastructure and habitual behaviors. From 2006–2020, approximately 8% of wildfires across the western United States were discovered on days with RFWs. We discuss our discovery that although the number of human-caused fires was higher on RFW days than on similar days without RFWs, the warnings appeared to disproportionately reduce the number of ignitions associated with short-term behavioral choices.
Presenter: John Abatzoglou, University of California, Merced
Understanding of the conditions that contribute to wildfire ignitions and impacts increases capacity to mitigate wildfire risks. The Fire Program Analysis Fire-Occurrence Database (FPA FOD) contains information on the location, jurisdiction, discovery time, cause, and final size of more than 2 million wildfires from 1992 through 2020. To each of those wildfire records, we added information on 267 physical, biological, social, and administrative attributes. As we will demonstrate, these publicly available data can be used to answer numerous questions about the circumstances associated with human- and lightning-caused wildfires. We will share examples of how the enhanced FPA FOD data can support descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive wildfire analytics, including the development of machine learning models.
Presenters:
Mojtaba Sadegh, Boise State University
Karen Short, USDA Forest Service
Wildfires reshape recreation access and experiences over the short and long term. A researcher shares emerging science that is revealing how people return to and perceive wildfire-affected landscapes, and a manager shares how they navigate decisions about supporting recreation in these contexts.
Presenters:
Dr. Eric White, Research Social Scientist, Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service;
Jon Meier, Assistant Field Manager, Wenatchee Field Office, Spokane District Bureau of Land Management
The science behind reforestation is not new, but in a changing climate, new challenges are rising around what to plant, where to plant, and who has access to planting opportunities. Two nonprofit practitioners review the science of reforestation and how we can develop effective governance systems for implementing planting programs that match the scale of fires and fairly meet the needs of the impacted landowners.
Presenters:
Dr. Brian Morris, Senior Director, Forest Restoration, American Forests;
Becca Shively, Senior Wildfire Manager, Sustainable Northwest
We reengineer and rebuild after wildfire through a range of treatments, trying to match our built infrastructure to new, amplified patterns of runoff. A national wildfire practitioner speaks to how leaders and policy makers are increasingly recognizing the need to manage the built environment to accommodate these changes, and an environmental engineer shares a powerful story of transformation in the face of repeated wildfire events.
Presenters:
Phoebe Suina, Founder and Owner, High Water Mark, LLC
Annie Schmidt, Co-Director, Alliance for Wildfire Resilience
After a fire, communities have to work together to organize their recovery effort. Local governments and community groups are on the front lines of figuring out what this looks like in their local contexts. A social scientist and a long-term recovery group leader describe the social and organizational processes through which recovery can happen, and how communities may
proactively plan for recovery.
Presenters:
Dr. Heidi Huber-Stearns, Associate Research Professor and Director, Ecosystem Workforce Program, University of Oregon;
John Moriarty, Associate Director, McKenzie Valley Long Term Recovery Group;
Kendall Melvin, Program Director, Glide Revitalization
Recently burned areas are at increased risk of flooding and debris flows, or rapidly moving landslides. Learn more about the science behind why debris flows happen, and how managers use that science to mitigate these hazards, even ahead of the fire.
Presenters: Dr. Annette Patton, Assistant Professor and Forest Watershed Specialist, Oregon State University;
Nancy Calhoun, Post-WildfireDebris Flow Program Manager, Washington Department of Natural Resources
Save the date for the 11th International Fire Ecology and Management Congress in New Orleans, Louisiana!
More information coming soon.