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risk assessment and analysis

Displaying 1 - 10 of 27

Near-future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States

Year of Publication
2019
Publication Type

Recent prolonged droughts and catastrophic wildfires in the western United States have raised concerns about the potential for forest mortality to impact forest structure, forest ecosystem services, and the economic vitality of communities in the coming decades. We used the Community Land Model (CLM) to determine forest vulnerability to mortality from drought and fire by the year 2049.

Rethinking the wildland fire management system

Year of Publication
2018
Publication Type

In the western United States and elsewhere, the need to change society’s relationship with wildfire is well-recognized. Suppressing fewer fires in fire-prone systems is promoted to escape existing feedback loops that lead to ever worsening conditions and increasing risks to responders and communities.

An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management

Year of Publication
2017
Publication Type

During active fire incidents, decisions regarding where and how to safely and effectively deploy resources to meet management objectives are often made under rapidly evolving conditions, with limited time to assess management strategies or for development of backup plans if initial efforts prove unsuccessful.

Progress in wilderness fire science: Embracing complexity

Year of Publication
2016
Publication Type

Wilderness has played an invaluable role in the development of wildland fire science. Since Agee’s review of the subject 15 years ago, tremendous progress has been made in the development of models and data, in understanding the complexity of wildland fire as a landscape process, and in appreciating the social factors that influence the use of wilderness fire.

Assessing Landscape Vulnerability to Wildfire in the USA

Year of Publication
2016
Publication Type

Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes.

Is seeing believing? Perceptions of wildfire risk over time

Year of Publication
2016
Publication Type

Ongoing challenges to understanding how hazard exposure and disaster experiences influence perceived risk lead us to ask: Is seeing believing? We approach risk perception by attending to two components of overall risk perception: perceived probability of an event occurring and perceived consequences if an event occurs.