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modeling

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Climate-driven changes in forest succession and the influence of management on forest carbon dynamics in the Puget Lowlands of Washington State, USA

Year of Publication
2016
Publication Type

Projecting the response of forests to changing climate requires understanding how biotic and abiotic controls on tree growth will change over time. As temperature and interannual precipitation variability increase, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to changing climate.

Modeling wildfire regimes in forest landscapes: abstracting a complex reality

Year of Publication
2015
Publication Type

Fire is a natural disturbance that is nearly ubiquitous in terrestrial ecosystems. The capacity to burn exists virtually wherever vegetation grows. In some forested landscapes, fire is a principal driver of rapid ecosystem change, resetting succession ( McKenzie et al. 1996a ) and changing wildlife habitat (Cushman et al. 2011 ), hydrology ( Feikema et al.

Developing a post-processor to link the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) and the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS)

Year of Publication
2015
Publication Type

In this project, we developed a Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS, JFSP Project #) post-processor (FVS2FCCS) to convert FVS simulated treelist and surface fuel data into Fuel Characteristics Classification System (FCCS, JFSP Project #98-1-1-06) fuelbed format (.xml) that can be read and processed by the FCCS to create estimates of surface fire behavior, including reaction intensity (Btu ft-2 min

Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984-2012

Year of Publication
2015
Publication Type

Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a "fire deficit" or "fire surplus", respectively.

Modeling spatial and temporal dynamics of wind flow and potential fire behavior following a mountain pine beetle outbreak in a lodgepole pine forest

Year of Publication
2015
Publication Type

Patches of live, dead, and dying trees resulting from bark beetle-caused mortality alter spatial and temporal variability in the canopy and surface fuel complex through changes in the foliar moisture content of attacked trees and through the redistribution of canopy fuels. The resulting heterogeneous fuels complexes alter within-canopy wind flow, wind fluctuations, and rate of fire spread.

Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling

Year of Publication
2015
Publication Type

Wildfire activity and escalating suppression costs continue to threaten the financial health of federal land management agencies. In order to minimize and effectively manage the cost of financial risk, agencies need the ability to quantify that risk. A fundamental aim of this research effort, therefore, is to develop a process for generating risk-based metrics for annual suppression costs.