Research Database
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Three fuel models for predicting urban fire spread – a stopgap for emergency management in the US
Year: 2025
BackgroundPrevailing American wildland fire modelling systems fail to predict fire growth in urban areas due to the absence of burnable urban fuels.AimsThis research aims to identify fuel models that optimise fire spread in urban areas relative to a hypothetical fire spread model derived from observations of recent urban fires.MethodsA target Rate of Spread (RoS) is derived from observations of seven urban conflagrations to anchor the model to absolute RoS. Exhaustive parameter sweeps are used to identify combinations of fuel variables that…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Outcome efficacy and responsibility as correlates of household wildfire adaptation action in Boulder, CO
Year: 2025
Growing wildfire risks are increasing losses and damages to wildland-urban interface households in the American West. In Colorado, the December 2021 Marshall Fire destroyed over 1000 suburban homes and became the most destructive fire in the state's history and the 10th costliest in US history. Fortunately, homeowner adaptation action can play a significant role in preventing structural damage or loss that can come from a wildfire. Yet, action is more effective when coordinated across a community, since the nature of wildfire as a hazard means that one homeowner's wildfire risk is informed…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area
Year: 2025
Although half of Earth’s population resides in the wildland-urban interface, human exposure to wildland fires remains unquantified. We show that the population directly exposed to wildland fires increased 40% globally from 2002 to 2021 despite a 26% decline in burned area. Increased exposure was mainly driven by enhanced colocation of wildland fires and human settlements, doubling the exposure per unit burned area. We show that population dynamics accounted for 25% of the 440 million human exposures to wildland fires. Although wildfire disasters in North America, Europe, and Oceania have…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States
Year: 2025
Climate change has increased forest fire extent in temperate and boreal North America. Here, we quantified the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to human mortality and economic burden from exposure to wildfire particulate matter at the county and state level across the contiguous US (2006 to 2020) by integrating climate projections, climate-wildfire models, wildfire smoke models, and emission and health impact modeling. Climate change contributed to approximately 15,000 wildfire particulate matter deaths over 15 years with interannual variability ranging from 130 (95% confidence…
Climate Change and Fire, Economic Impacts of Fire, Smoke and Air Quality, Social and Community Impacts of Fire
Publication Type: Journal Article