Topic: Risk Assessment and Analysis

Wildfires have increasingly affected human and natural systems across the western United States (WUS) in recent decades. Given that the majority of ignitions are human-caused and potentially preventable, improving the ability to predict fire occurrence is critical for effective wildfire…

Aim

Climate-driven fire increases could be modified by fire-fuel feedback, as recent fires reduce burnable fuels for future fires. Knowing the effects of fire-fuel feedback is essential for more accurate projection of fire activity, which, however, has often…

Background

Changes in climate and vegetation, in combination with fire exclusion, are altering and homogenizing fire regime attributes compared to historical conditions. Fire regime changes are commonly quantified using departure metrics based on differences in measures…

We developed the WULFFSS, a stochastic monthly gridded forest-fire model for the western United States (US). Operating at 12 km resolution, WULFFSS calculates monthly probabilities of fires that burn at least 100 ha of forest area as well as the forest area burned per fire. The model is forced…

Background

Roads play an important role in managing fire on the national forests. But roads also are known to increase ignitions and damage ecosystems. Roads may limit the size of wildfires, which may be viewed as desirable where fires endanger human life and property…

During periods of heightened wildland fire activity in the United States, multiagency coordinating groups must prioritize among multiple on-going fires to allocate scarce suppression resources. While many studies have explored factors that influence wildfire suppression expenditures and…

Multi-stakeholder planning and prioritization for ecosystem management and wildfire risk mitigation are complicated by the need to balance a multitude of values, goals, viewpoints, and interests across large landscapes. Doing so requires quantifying current conditions, defining management…

Mature and old-growth forests (MOG) provide essential ecosystem services, yet they face increasing threats. Currently, high-intensity, high-severity wildfires are the main driver for loss of MOG on federally managed forests across the United States. Quantifying MOG forests with greatest exposure…

Background

Post-wildfire debris flows (PFDFs) frequently threaten life, property and infrastructure in California. To date, there is no comprehensive assessment of their spatial distribution, seasonality, atmospheric drivers and interannual variability across the state.…

Many regions of the world have seen an increase in highly destructive wildfires, driven by well-documented increases in burned area and growth of housing in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which exposes more homes to fire. However, it is unclear whether wildfires are also becoming more…