Budworms, beetles and wildfire: Disturbance interactions influence the likelihood of insect-caused disturbances at a subcontinental scale

Irruptive forest insects are a leading biotic disturbance across temperate and boreal forests. Outbreaks of forest insects are becoming more frequent and extensive due to anthropogenic drivers (e.g. climate and land-use), perhaps increasing the likelihood that forests will experience multiple insect-caused disturbances. Across the fire-prone Douglas-fir forests of western North America, recent outbreaks of the western spruce budworm and Douglas-fir beetle have impacted large expanses of forests, with a higher degree of overlap than expected in some ecoregions. Outbreaks of both insects are positively related to host availability and exhibit density-dependent population dynamics that are affected by climate and weather. Here, we leverage data from aerial detection surveys, estimates of host availability, climate and weather, and categorized fire severity to describe the spatial overlap between western spruce budworm and Douglas-fir beetle and assess: (1) how climate and host availability influence the biogeography of outbreaks; (2) how weather incites outbreaks; and finally, (3) how prior disturbances (fire and biotic) affect the subsequent outbreak likelihood of western spruce budworm and Douglas-fir beetle.  Models demonstrate that western spruce budworm and Douglas-fir beetle share similar predisposing drivers of outbreaks. Outbreaks of both insects were more likely to occur following warm weather, but only beetle outbreaks were more likely following drought. When controlling for differences in outbreak distribution and inciting factors, results indicate that both prior fire and interspecific disturbance altered the likelihood of subsequent insect-caused disturbance. Specifically, Douglas-fir beetle outbreaks were more likely to occur for several years following low severity fire, but less likely otherwise. Prior defoliation, especially longer duration defoliation, increased the likelihood of beetle outbreak within stands and across the landscape. On the contrary, western spruce budworm outbreaks were less likely to occur following fire, while prior beetle activity dampened budworm outbreak likelihood for several years, and then eventually increased outbreak likelihood. Synthesis: Biotic–biotic disturbance interactions have the potential to amplify the incidence of insect-caused disturbance across subcontinental scales. Our findings highlight the need for future work on mechanistic linkages between biotic disturbance agents as well as the ramifications for forest trajectories and function.