Spatiotemporal patterns of unburned areas within fire perimeters in the northwestern United States from 1984 to 2014

A warming climate, fire exclusion, and land cover changes are altering the conditions that produced historical fire regimes and facilitating increased recent wildfire activity in the northwestern United States. Understanding the impacts of changing fire regimes on forest recruitment and succession, species distributions, carbon cycling, and ecosystem services is critical, but challenging across broad spatial scales. One important and understudied aspect of fire regimes is the unburned area within fire perimeters; these areas can function as fire refugia across the landscape during and after wildfire by providing habitat and seed sources. With increasing fire activity, there is speculation that fire intensity and combustion completeness are also increasing, which we hypothesized would yield smaller unburned proportions and changes in fire refugia patterns. We sought to determine (1) whether the unburned proportion of wildfires decreased across the northwestern United States from 1984 to 2014 and (2) whether patterns of unburned patches were significantly different across ecoregions, land cover type, and land ownership. We utilized a Landsat‐derived geospatial database of unburned islands within 2298 fires across the inland northwestern USA (including eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, and Idaho) from 1984 to 2014. We evaluated patterns of the total unburned proportion and spatial patterns of unburned patches of the fires across different ecoregions, land cover types, and land ownership. We found that unburned area proportion exhibited no change over the three decades, suggesting that recent trends in area burned and overall severity have not affected fire refugia, important to post‐fire ecosystem recovery. There were ecoregional differences in mean unburned proportion, patch area, and patch density, suggesting influences of vegetation and topography on the formation of unburned area. These foundation findings suggest that complex drivers control unburned island formation, and yield insights to locate potential important fire refugia across the inland northwest.

A Statement of Common Ground Regarding the Role of Wildfire in Forested Landscapes of the Western United States

Executive Summary:

For millennia, wildfires have markedly influenced forests and non-forested landscapes of the western United States (US), and they are increasingly seen as having substantial impacts on society and nature. There is growing concern over what kinds and amounts of fire will achieve desirable outcomes and limit harmful effects on people and nature. Moreover, the increasing complexity surrounding cost and management of wildfires suggests that science should play a more prominent role in informing decisions about the need for fire in nature, and the need for society to adapt to the inevitable occurrence of different kinds and amounts of fire and smoke.
Scientists widely view the natural wildfire regime as essential to western US forest ecosystem functioning. However, debates continue over how much low-, moderate-, and high-severity fire is “natural” or desirable in these forests. Ongoing disagreement centers on the characteristics and importance of historical proportions and patch size distributions of low-, moderate-, and high-severity fires of dry, moist, and cold forests, and on the ecological consequences of changing fire-patch patterns and relative abundances. Scientists also debate the relative importance of climate and extreme weather versus fuel as drivers of high-severity fire, as well as the effectiveness and value of fuel treatments for reducing risks of undesired fire effects.
Climate research shows that we should expect shifting future climates in all ecoregions. These expected changes make it difficult for scientists, land managers, and decision-makers to know the degree to which future forest management should be informed by historical conditions. There also is disagreement about how to make western forests more resilient to future disruptions in both climatic and fire regimes. To complicate matters, areas of scientific agreement -- the “common ground” shared by those in the research community -- are poorly articulated. Thus, the focus of the Fire Research Consensus (FRC) project has been to identify common ground among scientists, and provide a summary that can inform management. Land and fire managers are one audience for this report, as are stakeholders and the interested public.
Our analysis, which results from extensive scientific literature reviews and questionnaires sent to western fire scientists and land managers, is summarized in nine key topics:
A. Fire history and fire ecology vary with geography.
B. Human impacts and management history vary with geography.
C. Fire is a keystone process, which occurs in almost all western US forest types.
D. Knowledge of historical range of variability (HRV) is useful but does not dictate land management goals.
E. Forest structure, composition, and fuels have changed, affecting burn severity and fire extent.
F. Climate and fuels both influence current fire sizes and their severities.
G. The role of changing climatic conditions is increasingly important.
H. Multiple fire ecology and fire history research approaches can be useful for characterizing fire regimes.
I. Many existing fire management tools and strategies can be useful moving forward.

We found much common ground that will be useful to scientists, managers, citizens, and policy decision-makers. For example, there is wide agreement among scientists that fire is one of the most essential influences on western forests and that more fire is needed on most landscapes, but not all wildfire behavior or extent will do. Fires can produce more positive benefits and fewer negative impacts when they burn with an ecologically appropriate mix and pattern of low, moderate, and high severity. Managers will need assistance and funding to create landscape conditions that favor more desirable fire behavior at broad spatial scales. Note that much societal impact from western wildfires occurs in non-forested landscapes that are not covered in this report, where findings would differ from those reported here for forested landscapes. We summarize additional key points below.